Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KENNTeam statsJXST
- Q4 0:51KENNNavelle Dean 11 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)19–15
- Q4 4:04JXSTCaden Creel 19 Yd Run (Caden Creel Pass to Deondre Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)12–15
- Q4 10:20JXSTCam Cook 1 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)12–7
- Q4 12:33KENNTeam Safety12–0
- Q3 9:57KENNBritton Williams 38 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q2 13:03KENNColeman Bennett 3 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAmari Odom 26/32, 246 YDS, 1 TD
- RushColeman Bennett 17 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChristian Moss 5 REC, 75 YDS
- PassCaden Creel 12/21, 96 YDS, 1 INT
- RushCaden Creel 18 CAR, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeondre Johnson 4 REC, 59 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKENN up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:51KENN +78%
Shotgun #2 A.Odom pass complete short right to #7 N.Dean caught at Jax St00, for 11 yards to the Jax St00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 4:04JXST +63%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 19 yards gain to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #11 D.Johnson pass attempt Successful
- Q2 13:03KENN +20%
Shotgun #0 C.Bennett rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Jax St00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 3:56KENN +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Odom pass incomplete deep left to #9 D.Bryson thrown to Jax St45 PENALTY Jax St Pass Interference (#12 M.Jones) 15 yards from KSU25 to KSU40, 1S…
- Q4 10:20JXST +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Cook rush left for 1 yard gain to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 8:20KENN +17%
#91 J.Huiet punt 40 yards to the Jax St43 #1 C.Nix return for loss of 2 yards to the Jax St41 (#11 L.Ravare)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State?
Kennesaw State 19, Jacksonville State 15.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked JXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| KENN | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 318 | Total yards | 306 |
| 246 | Passing yards | 96 |
| 72 | Rushing yards | 210 |
| 23 | First downs | 19 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 26/32 | Comp/Att | 12/22 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 4.4 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-26 | Penalties | 7-72 |
| 31:12 | Possession | 28:48 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:47 KENN punt on 4th & 1 at KENN 25. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.84 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:51KENNNavelle Dean 11 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)19–15
- Q4 4:04JXSTCaden Creel 19 Yd Run (Caden Creel Pass to Deondre Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)12–15
- Q4 10:20JXSTCam Cook 1 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)12–7
- Q4 12:33KENNTeam Safety12–0
- Q3 9:57KENNBritton Williams 38 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q2 13:03KENNColeman Bennett 3 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JXST Elo 1501, KENN Elo 1401 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JXST -6.4 (68% to win) — 8.4 points clear of JXST's market line of +2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| KENN | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.9 (#76) | CORE overall | -10.7 (#99) |
| +2 / +6 | offense / defense | -4 / +7 |
| 2.14 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →