Sat, Dec 6, 12:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENN | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 19 |
| JXST | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (JXST Elo 1501, KENN Elo 1401) plus home-field advantage. That projects JXST -6.4 (68% to win) — 8.4 points of value on JXST versus the market line of +2.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = KENN ahead, below = JXST ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
KENN up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kennesaw State 19, Jacksonville State 15.
No — the model picked JXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had JXST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(02:41) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass intercepted by #29 M.Jones at KSU00, Touchback
(10:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 34 yards gain to the KSU38 (#12 K.Jones), 1ST DOWN
(12:56) Shotgun #2 A.Odom rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Jax St01 (#59 M.Sanders; #49 T.Gallagher), TURNOVER ON DOWNS. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the goal line". CALL UPHELD
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →