| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSU | 21 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 42 |
| KU | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (KU Elo 1621, KSU Elo 1695) plus home-field advantage. That projects KU +0.6 (48% to win) — 4.1 points of value on KSU versus the market line of -3.5.
KSU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kansas State 42, Kansas 17.
Yes — the model's pick (KSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had KSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Ralph Ortiz 20 Yd Fumble Return (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete deep left to #1 J.Brown caught at KU43, for 78 yards to the KU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:03, 1ST DOWN #43 L.Rodriguez kick attempt good (H: #8 S.McClannan, LS: #33 A.Johnson)
End of 2nd quarter.
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