Wed, Oct 29, 12:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMU | 14 | 14 | 21 | 3 | 52 |
| TXST | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TXST Elo 1554, JMU Elo 1733) plus home-field advantage. That projects TXST +4.8 (36% to win) — 2.7 points of value on TXST versus the market line of +7.5.
JMU up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 527 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
James Madison 52, Texas State 20.
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had JMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete deep middle to #11 N.DeGennaro caught at TXST35, for 76 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:13, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)
End of 2nd quarter.
(09:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short middle to #3 M.Anderson caught at TXST35, for 48 yards to the JMU32 (#30 J.Eaglin), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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