James Madison vs. Texas State: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

James Madison6-1

▸

Texas State3-4

Final

Bobcat Stadium (TX)Conference game

	1	2	3	4	T
JMU	14	14	21	3	52
TXST	0	20	0	0	20

JMUTeam statsTXST

511Total yards352

264Pass230

247Rush122

22First downs20

6-113rd down6-15

1Turnovers3

32:30Possession27:30

Q4 13:27JMUMorgan Suarez 31 Yd Field Goal 52–20
Q3 6:43JMUAlonza Barnett III 2 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)49–20
Q3 9:50JMULogan Kyle 5 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)42–20
Q3 14:13JMUNick DeGennaro 76 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)35–20
Q2 0:04TXSTTyler Robles 36 Yd Field Goal 28–20
Q2 1:37TXSTBrad Jackson 3 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)28–17
Q2 4:45JMUJosh Phifer 14 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)28–10
Q2 6:00TXSTTyler Robles 35 Yd Field Goal 21–10
Q2 9:45JMUJordan Fuller 3 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)21–7
Q2 14:34TXSTMavin Anderson 14 Yd pass from Brad Jackson (Tyler Robles Kick)14–7
Q1 4:16JMUJordan Fuller 8 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)14–0
Q1 7:49JMUNick DeGennaro 6 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Model line

JMU −4.8

market JMU −7.5

Biggest swing

JMU +16%

Q1 7:49

Against the number

JMU covered

line JMU −7.5

TXST favored ↑50%JMU favored ↓

GridpexJMU 100%

Closing line

JMU −7.5

Closing total

55.5

Model line

JMU −4.8

Actual result

JMU 52 – 20 TXST

James Madison

PassAlonza Barnett III 12/18, 264 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
RushAlonza Barnett III 10 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
RecNick DeGennaro 3 REC, 101 YDS, 2 TD

Texas State

PassBrad Jackson 18/32, 230 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
RushBrad Jackson 16 CAR, 43 YDS, 1 TD
RecMavin Anderson 5 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD

25.2sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

141

Points / snap

0.51

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

JMU up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 527 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

99%

JMU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WOregon vs Stanford42-6 WNorth Dakota State vs Murray State38-6 WWyoming vs Nevada42-6 WJames Madison vs Coastal Carolina39-7 WSouth Dakota State vs Missouri State45-9

Q1 7:49JMU +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete short middle to #11 N.DeGennaro caught at TXST00, for 6 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN
Q2 14:34TXST +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short left to #3 M.Anderson caught at JMU00, for 14 yards to the JMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q2 9:45JMU +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Fuller rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN PENALTY TXST UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#15 D.Russell), 1ST DOWN
Q1 4:16JMU +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Fuller rush left for 8 yards gain to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN
Q3 14:13JMU +11%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete deep middle to #11 N.DeGennaro caught at TXST35, for 76 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q2 1:49TXST +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass intercepted by #32 D.Barksdale at JMU02 #32 D.Barksdale return 23 yards to the JMU25, out of bounds at JMU25 PENALTY JMU Illegal Su…

FAQ

What was the final score of James Madison vs. Texas State?

James Madison 52, Texas State 20.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.

JMU

TXST

49%

Success rate

30%

1.05

EPA / pass

0.00

0.26

EPA / rush

0.10

48%

Early-down success

26%

52%

Pass success

28%

48%

Rush success

32%

14%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

10%

19%

Stuffed rush rate

13%

33%

Pass rate

51%

6.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.3

JMU

6.1 yards to go on 3rd down

63 scrimmage snaps

TXST

6.3 yards to go on 3rd down

78 scrimmage snaps

JMU		TXST
511	Total yards	352
264	Passing yards	230
247	Rushing yards	122
22	First downs	20
6-11	3rd down	6-15
0-0	4th down	1-2
12/19	Comp/Att	18/35
13.9	Yards per pass	6.6
6.0	Yards per rush	3.1
1	Turnovers	3
6-43	Penalties	4-20
32:30	Possession	27:30

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

TXST 1554

JMU 1733

Projected spread

TXST +4.8

incl. home edge

Model pick

JMU

61% to win

Market spread

TXST +7.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

TXST

2.7 pts apart

Win prob: model / mkt

39%

TXST · market 30%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1554, JMU Elo 1733 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TXST +4.8 (39% to win) — 2.7 points clear of TXST's market line of +7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

JMU2025 season · national rank shownTXST

454.916th

Total yards / game

473.55th

6.521st

Yards / play

6.717th

211.188th

Passing yards / game

250.843rd

243.76th

Rushing yards / game

222.710th

46.7%17th

3rd down %

46.0%23rd

267.05th

Yards allowed / game

385.683rd

29.2%6th

3rd down % allowed

40.7%90th

+166th

Turnover margin

-5103rd

7.5122nd

Penalties / game

6.9102nd

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

JMU		TXST
+20.6 (#13)	CORE overall	+9.4 (#41)
+5 / -16	offense / defense	+12 / +3
3.06	points / drive	3.21
1.42	allowed / drive	2.73
22%	three-and-outs	20%
-3	pass over expected	-4

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Game Info

Kickoff: Tue, Oct 28, 8:00 PM EDT
Venue: Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Setting: Conference game
Model line: JMU -4.8

The Model's Pick

James Madison

to win · 61%

✓ Hit

Projected spreadJMU -4.8

Market70%

Game Leaders

James Madison

Pass Alonza Barnett12/18, 264 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
Rush Alonza Barnett10 car, 98 yds, 1 TD
Rec Nick DeGennaro3 rec, 101 yds, 2 TD

Texas State

Pass Brad Jackson18/32, 230 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
Rush Brad Jackson16 car, 43 yds, 1 TD
Rec Mavin Anderson5 rec, 96 yds, 1 TD

Biggest Plays

James Madison+6.9 EPA
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III pass complete deep middle to #11 N.DeGennaro caught at TXST35, for 76 yards to the TXST00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:13, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)
James Madison+-4.5 EPA
End of 2nd quarter.
Texas State+4.3 EPA
(09:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Jackson pass complete short middle to #3 M.Anderson caught at TXST35, for 48 yards to the JMU32 (#30 J.Eaglin), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN

JMUTeam statsTXST

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of James Madison vs. Texas State?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

James Madison vs. Texas State: Final Score & Recap

JMUTeam statsTXST

How the model called it

What was the final score of James Madison vs. Texas State?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups