Bobcat Stadium (TX)Conference gameClosing line: JMU +-7.5 · JMU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMU | 14 | 14 | 21 | 3 | 52 |
| TXST | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
Team stats
JMUthis game · better side highlightedTXST
511
Total yards
352264
Passing yards
230247
Rushing yards
12222
First downs
206-11 · 55%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TXST 1554
JMU 1733
Projected spread
TXST +4.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
JMU
64% to win
Market spread
TXST +7.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
TXST
2.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
36%
TXST · market 30%
Our model blends Elo ratings (TXST Elo 1554, JMU Elo 1733) plus home-field advantage. That projects TXST +4.8 (36% to win) — 2.7 points of value on TXST versus the market line of +7.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TXST (top)JMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TXST 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- TXST pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. JMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge TXST.
- TXST rush offense (0.28 PPA) vs. JMU rush defense (-0.00 allowed) — edge TXST.
- JMU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. TXST rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge JMU.
Drive-by-drive
JMU 8/13 scoring drives← own end zone →TXST 4/13 scoring drives
TXSTINT5 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q1
JMUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· opp 43Q1
TXSTPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 10Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
JMU up 29 entering the 4th quarter. Across 527 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
JMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of James Madison vs. Texas State?
James Madison 52, Texas State 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had JMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.