| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IU | 10 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 30 |
| ORE | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ORE Elo 2018, IU Elo 2000) plus home-field advantage. That projects ORE -3.1 (59% to win) — 3.9 points of value on IU versus the market line of -7.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = IU ahead, below = ORE ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
IU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Indiana 30, Oregon 20.
No — the model picked ORE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had ORE pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Fernando Mendoza pass intercepted Brandon Finney Jr. return for 35 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
Dante Moore pass complete to Malik Benson for 44 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
Dante Moore pass complete to Jeremiah McClellan for 13 yds to the IU 24 for a 1ST down
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