| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| WIS | 7 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WIS Elo 1467, ILL Elo 1630) plus home-field advantage. That projects WIS +4.1 (38% to win) — 4.9 points of value on WIS versus the market line of +9.
WIS up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Illinois 10, Wisconsin 27.
No — the model picked ILL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had ILL pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(09:44) Shotgun #6 D.Dupree rush middle for 84 yards gain to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:40, 1ST DOWN #90 N.Vakos kick attempt good (H: #49 A.Bertrams, LS: #46 N.Levy)
(05:25) Shotgun #2 T.Kekahuna rush left for 25 yards gain to the ILL22 (#10 M.Scott), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 L.Altmyer pass complete short middle to #13 H.Clement caught at WIS47, for 15 yards to the WIS47 (#2 R.Hallman), 1ST DOWN
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