Georgia vs. Georgia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UGATeam statsGT
- Q4 3:30GTAidan Birr 41 Yd Field Goal 16–9
- Q4 14:10UGAPeyton Woodring 50 Yd Field Goal 16–6
- Q3 4:33GTAidan Birr 44 Yd Field Goal 13–6
- Q2 0:01UGAPeyton Woodring 30 Yd Field Goal 13–3
- Q2 4:35UGAZachariah Branch 7 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)10–3
- Q2 9:42UGAPeyton Woodring 22 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 1:20GTAidan Birr 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassGunner Stockton 11/21, 70 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushNate Frazier 16 CAR, 108 YDS
- RecZachariah Branch 5 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- PassHaynes King 19/27, 181 YDS, 1 INT
- RushHaynes King 10 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecIsiah Canion 4 REC, 54 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUGA up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 4:35UGA +11%
Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short middle to #1 Z.Branch caught at GT04, for 7 yards to the GT00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 1:20GT +7%
#33 A.Birr field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD
- Q3 4:33GT +6%
#33 A.Birr field goal attempt from 44 yards GOOD
- Q2 9:42UGA +5%
#91 P.Woodring field goal attempt from 22 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia vs. Georgia Tech?
Georgia 16, Georgia Tech 9.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
| UGA | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| 260 | Total yards | 250 |
| 70 | Passing yards | 181 |
| 190 | Rushing yards | 69 |
| 19 | First downs | 14 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 11/21 | Comp/Att | 19/27 |
| 3.3 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 5-57 |
| 35:21 | Possession | 24:39 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:42 UGA field goal on 4th & 3 at GT 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:30GTAidan Birr 41 Yd Field Goal 16–9
- Q4 14:10UGAPeyton Woodring 50 Yd Field Goal 16–6
- Q3 4:33GTAidan Birr 44 Yd Field Goal 13–6
- Q2 0:01UGAPeyton Woodring 30 Yd Field Goal 13–3
- Q2 4:35UGAZachariah Branch 7 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)10–3
- Q2 9:42UGAPeyton Woodring 22 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 1:20GTAidan Birr 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GT Elo 1573, UGA Elo 2048 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects GT +19 (12% to win) — 3.0 points clear of UGA's market line of +16. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesGeorgia leads 69–40–5 · Georgia has won 8 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
| UGA | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.0 (#15) | CORE overall | +10.6 (#38) |
| +9 / -11 | offense / defense | +13 / +3 |
| 3.08 | points / drive | 2.86 |
| 1.83 | allowed / drive | 2.39 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →