| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGA | 0 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 16 |
| GT | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (GT Elo 1573, UGA Elo 2048) on a neutral field. That projects GT +19 (8% to win) — 3.0 points of value on UGA versus the market line of +16.
UGA up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Georgia 16, Georgia Tech 9.
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UGA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.King pass intercepted by #1 E.Robinson IV at UGA04, End Of Play
(09:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete deep middle to #1 Z.Branch caught at UGA49, for 23 yards to the UGA49, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
(04:40) Shotgun #14 G.Stockton pass complete short middle to #1 Z.Branch caught at GT04, for 7 yards to the GT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:35, 1ST DOWN #91 P.Woodring kick attempt good (H: #14 G.Stockton, LS: #60 B.Gardner)
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