Georgia Tech vs. Wake Forest: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GTTeam statsWAKE
- OT 0:00WAKEDemond Claiborne 25 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–29
- OT 0:00GTHaynes King 2 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)30–23
- Q4 0:02GTAidan Birr 33 Yd Field Goal 23–23
- Q4 5:08WAKEConnor Calvert 29 Yd Field Goal 20–23
- Q4 9:45GTAidan Birr 19 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q3 0:17GTHaynes King 5 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)17–20
- Q3 5:39GTEric Rivers 14 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)10–20
- Q3 10:33WAKEConnor Calvert 24 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 0:22WAKEConnor Calvert 24 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 5:53WAKEDemond Claiborne 27 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)3–14
- Q2 10:46WAKERobby Ashford 4 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:09GTAidan Birr 35 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WAKE lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassHaynes King 28/42, 243 YDS, 1 TD
- RushHaynes King 21 CAR, 106 YDS, 2 TD
- RecEric Rivers Jr. 8 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- PassRobby Ashford 13/28, 219 YDS
- RushDemond Claiborne 21 CAR, 119 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMicah Mays Jr. 2 REC, 65 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWAKE up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:02GT +94%
Aidan Birr 33 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 0:00WAKE +90%
R. Ashford takes a knee
- OT 0:00GT +58%
H.King rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by N.Andersen at WAKE 20
- Q4 5:08WAKE +45%
Connor Calvert 29 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 1:41WAKE +34%
Cal Joseph punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bailey Stockton at the GT 30
- OT 0:00GT +32%
H.King rushed for 2 yards. TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Tech vs. Wake Forest?
Georgia Tech 30, Wake Forest 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GT) was correct.
| GT | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 411 | Total yards | 443 |
| 248 | Passing yards | 233 |
| 163 | Rushing yards | 210 |
| 27 | First downs | 20 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 9-18 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 29/43 | Comp/Att | 14/31 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 7.5 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 5.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-23 | Penalties | 8-81 |
| 32:46 | Possession | 27:14 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:45 GT field goal on 4th & 2 at WAKE 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00WAKEDemond Claiborne 25 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–29
- OT 0:00GTHaynes King 2 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)30–23
- Q4 0:02GTAidan Birr 33 Yd Field Goal 23–23
- Q4 5:08WAKEConnor Calvert 29 Yd Field Goal 20–23
- Q4 9:45GTAidan Birr 19 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q3 0:17GTHaynes King 5 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)17–20
- Q3 5:39GTEric Rivers 14 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)10–20
- Q3 10:33WAKEConnor Calvert 24 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 0:22WAKEConnor Calvert 24 Yd Field Goal 3–17
- Q2 5:53WAKEDemond Claiborne 27 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)3–14
- Q2 10:46WAKERobby Ashford 4 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:09GTAidan Birr 35 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WAKE Elo 1383, GT Elo 1576 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WAKE +5.3 (37% to win) — 7.2 points clear of WAKE's market line of +12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesGeorgia Tech leads 25–8 · Georgia Tech has won 5 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| GT | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.6 (#38) | CORE overall | +9.3 (#42) |
| +13 / +3 | offense / defense | -4 / -13 |
| 2.86 | points / drive | 2.03 |
| 2.39 | allowed / drive | 1.84 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →