Allegacy Federal Credit Union StadiumConference gameClosing line: GT +-12.5 · WAKE covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GT | 3 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 30 |
| WAKE | 0 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 29 |
Team stats
GTthis game · better side highlightedWAKE
411
Total yards
445248
Passing yards
233163
Rushing yards
21227
First downs
20Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WAKE 1383
GT 1576
Projected spread
WAKE +5.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
GT
65% to win
Market spread
WAKE +12.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
WAKE
7.2 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
35%
WAKE · market 18%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WAKE Elo 1383, GT Elo 1576) plus home-field advantage. That projects WAKE +5.3 (35% to win) — 7.2 points of value on WAKE versus the market line of +12.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WAKE (top)GT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WAKE 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- GT pass offense (0.42 PPA) vs. WAKE pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge GT.
- GT rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. WAKE rush defense (-0.02 allowed) — edge GT.
- WAKE pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. GT pass defense (0.29 allowed) — edge GT.
Drive-by-drive
GT 6/14 scoring drives← own end zone →WAKE 6/14 scoring drives
GTPUNT7 pl, 26 yds· own 20Q1
WAKEPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 10Q1
GTFG7 pl, 22 yds· opp 40Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WAKE up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
WAKE went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Tech vs. Wake Forest?
Georgia Tech 30, Wake Forest 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had GT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.