| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAST | 0 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 19 |
| TROY | 0 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TROY Elo 1359, GAST Elo 1107) plus home-field advantage. That projects TROY -12.5 (82% to win) — 2.5 points of value on TROY versus the market line of -10.
TROY up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Georgia State 19, Troy 31.
Yes — the model's pick (TROY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TROY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(06:26) Shotgun #9 G.Crowder pass complete short right to #18 D.Epps caught at GSU29, for 35 yards to the GSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:25, 1ST DOWN #40 S.Renfroe kick attempt good (H: #28 E.Crenshaw, LS: #87 C.Walls)
End of 2nd quarter.
(01:37) Shotgun #8 C.Brown pass incomplete short right to #1 T.Hurst thrown to TROY00, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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