Georgia State vs. Troy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASTTeam statsTROY
- Q4 6:25TROYDJ Epps 35 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)19–31
- Q4 9:00GASTC. Veilleux pass to Ja. Robinson for 17 yds, for a TD (L. Rickman KICK)19–24
- Q4 12:01TROYDJ Epps 10 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)12–24
- Q3 3:29GASTBranson Robinson 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–17
- Q3 9:26TROYEthan Conner 39 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)6–17
- Q2 0:00GASTLiam Rickman 47 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 1:15TROYG. Crowder pass to E. Conner for 26 yds, for a TD (S. Renfroe KICK)3–10
- Q2 7:23TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 28 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 13:29GASTLiam Rickman 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TROY lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassChristian Veilleux 19/38, 303 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJordon Simmons 17 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecJavon Robinson 7 REC, 142 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGoose Crowder 27/43, 361 YDS, 4 TD
- RushTae Meadows 13 CAR, 35 YDS
- RecDJ Epps 8 REC, 103 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTROY up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 9:00GAST +16%
Shotgun #11 C.Veilleux pass complete short left to #5 J.Robinson caught at TROY05, for 17 yards to the TROY00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 9:26TROY +16%
Shotgun #9 G.Crowder pass complete short middle to #14 E.Conner caught at GSU38, for 39 yards to the GSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 1:15TROY +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 G.Crowder pass complete deep right to #14 E.Conner caught at GSU04, for 26 yards to the GSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 12:01TROY +10%
Shotgun #9 G.Crowder pass complete short right to #18 D.Epps caught at GSU00, for 10 yards to the GSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 8:40TROY +10%
Shotgun #22 T.Meadows rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TROY34 (#45 K.Butler; #25 J.Robinson)
- Q2 7:23TROY +8%
#40 S.Renfroe field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Troy?
Georgia State 19, Troy 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TROY) was correct.
| GAST | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 516 | Total yards | 423 |
| 360 | Passing yards | 361 |
| 156 | Rushing yards | 62 |
| 26 | First downs | 19 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 11-20 |
| 0-4 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 25/51 | Comp/Att | 27/43 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 1.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-30 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 29:55 | Possession | 30:05 |
Costliest call
Q2 2:05 TROY punt on 4th & 1 at TROY 32. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:25TROYDJ Epps 35 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)19–31
- Q4 9:00GASTC. Veilleux pass to Ja. Robinson for 17 yds, for a TD (L. Rickman KICK)19–24
- Q4 12:01TROYDJ Epps 10 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)12–24
- Q3 3:29GASTBranson Robinson 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–17
- Q3 9:26TROYEthan Conner 39 Yd pass from Goose Crowder (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)6–17
- Q2 0:00GASTLiam Rickman 47 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 1:15TROYG. Crowder pass to E. Conner for 26 yds, for a TD (S. Renfroe KICK)3–10
- Q2 7:23TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 28 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 13:29GASTLiam Rickman 34 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TROY Elo 1359, GAST Elo 1107 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TROY -12.5 (80% to win) — 2.5 points clear of TROY's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTroy leads 7–4 · Troy has won 2 straight · 18% have been one-possession games
| GAST | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.7 (#117) | CORE overall | -16.6 (#116) |
| -6 / +11 | offense / defense | -13 / +4 |
| 1.62 | points / drive | 1.77 |
| 3.54 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →