Florida vs. Texas A&M: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FLATeam statsTA&M
- Q4 1:11TA&MRandy Bond 22 Yd Field Goal 17–34
- Q4 4:39TA&MRueben Owens II 2 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)17–31
- Q3 7:08FLATrey Smack 45 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 10:42TA&MRandy Bond 26 Yd Field Goal 14–24
- Q2 13:04TA&MLe'Veon Moss 22 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)14–21
- Q1 3:38FLADallas Wilson 6 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:19TA&MJamarion Morrow 22 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)7–14
- Q1 10:14TA&MMarcel Reed 8 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:08FLAAmir Jackson 1 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FLA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TA&M did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.8 vs 3rd & 4.6
- FLA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassDJ Lagway 21/37, 245 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJadan Baugh 18 CAR, 65 YDS
- RecVernell Brown III 6 REC, 77 YDS
- PassMarcel Reed 16/26, 234 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRueben Owens II 17 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMario Craver 2 REC, 77 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTA&M up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:08FLA +18%
Amir Jackson 1 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)
- Q1 10:14TA&M +17%
Marcel Reed 8 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)
- Q2 13:04TA&M +16%
Le'Veon Moss 22 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)
- Q1 3:38FLA +16%
Dallas Wilson 6 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)
- Q1 6:19TA&M +15%
Jamarion Morrow 22 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)
- Q3 10:42TA&M +10%
Randy Bond 26 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida vs. Texas A&M?
Florida 17, Texas A&M 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TA&M) was correct.
| FLA | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 319 | Total yards | 417 |
| 245 | Passing yards | 234 |
| 74 | Rushing yards | 183 |
| 15 | First downs | 19 |
| 1-10 | 3rd down | 9-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 21/37 | Comp/Att | 16/26 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-54 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 26:18 | Possession | 33:42 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:42 TA&M field goal on 4th & 2 at FLA 8. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:11TA&MRandy Bond 22 Yd Field Goal 17–34
- Q4 4:39TA&MRueben Owens II 2 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)17–31
- Q3 7:08FLATrey Smack 45 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 10:42TA&MRandy Bond 26 Yd Field Goal 14–24
- Q2 13:04TA&MLe'Veon Moss 22 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)14–21
- Q1 3:38FLADallas Wilson 6 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:19TA&MJamarion Morrow 22 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)7–14
- Q1 10:14TA&MMarcel Reed 8 Yd Run (Randy Bond Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:08FLAAmir Jackson 1 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Trey Smack Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TA&M Elo 1782, FLA Elo 1665 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TA&M -7.1 (69% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTexas A&M leads 5–3 · Texas A&M has won 2 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| FLA | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.5 (#59) | CORE overall | +22.7 (#9) |
| +0 / -3 | offense / defense | +12 / -11 |
| 1.68 | points / drive | 2.65 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 1.67 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →