| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 14 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| TA&M | 14 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TA&M Elo 1782, FLA Elo 1665) plus home-field advantage. That projects TA&M -7.1 (70% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = FLA ahead, below = TA&M ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
TA&M up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Florida 17, Texas A&M 34.
Yes — the model's pick (TA&M) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TA&M pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Marcel Reed pass complete to Mario Craver for 67 yds to the FLA 8 for a 1ST down
DJ Lagway pass complete to Eugene Wilson III for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
Jamarion Morrow 22 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (Randy Bond Kick)
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