| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLO | 0 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 20 |
| HOU | 10 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 36 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (HOU Elo 1441, COLO Elo 1660) plus home-field advantage. That projects HOU +6.4 (32% to win) — 10.4 points of value on COLO versus the market line of -4.
HOU up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Colorado 20, Houston 36.
No — the model picked COLO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had COLO pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Ryan Staub run for 29 yds to the HOU 48 for a 1ST down Houston Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Latreveon McCutchin) to the HOU 37 for a 1ST down
Ryan Staub pass complete to Joseph Williams for 37 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Dean Connors run for no gain to the COLO 17
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