Colorado vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
COLOTeam statsHOU
- Q4 3:34HOUEthan Sanchez 49 Yd Field Goal 20–36
- Q4 4:34COLOJoseph Williams 37 Yd pass from Ryan Staub (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–33
- Q4 11:39HOUConner Weigman 7 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–33
- Q3 1:21HOUConner Weigman 1 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–26
- Q3 6:25HOUEthan Sanchez 35 Yd Field Goal 14–19
- Q2 0:26COLOZach Atkins 0 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)14–16
- Q2 1:45HOUEthan Sanchez 47 Yd Field Goal 7–16
- Q2 7:34COLOSimeon Price 38 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–13
- Q2 14:13HOUEthan Sanchez 43 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 3:52HOUDean Connors 4 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)0–10
- Q1 6:42HOUEthan Sanchez 52 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- COLO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and HOU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 6.1
- COLO lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassRyan Staub 19/35, 204 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushSimeon Price 5 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- RecOmarion Miller 3 REC, 54 YDS
- PassConner Weigman 15/24, 222 YDS
- RushDean Connors 22 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
- RecStephon Johnson 5 REC, 117 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHOU up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:26COLO +24%
Zach Atkins 0 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)
- Q3 1:21HOU +21%
Conner Weigman run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
- Q2 7:34COLO +20%
Simeon Price run for 38 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q1 3:52HOU +19%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds for a TD (Ethan Sanchez KICK)
- Q3 6:25HOU +13%
Ethan Sanchez 35 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 14:13HOU +11%
Ethan Sanchez 43 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado vs. Houston?
Colorado 20, Houston 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked COLO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| COLO | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 300 | Total yards | 431 |
| 204 | Passing yards | 222 |
| 96 | Rushing yards | 209 |
| 15 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 7-18 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 19/35 | Comp/Att | 15/24 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-45 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 23:15 | Possession | 36:45 |
Costliest call
Q1 5:27 COLO punt on 4th & 2 at COLO 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.49 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:34HOUEthan Sanchez 49 Yd Field Goal 20–36
- Q4 4:34COLOJoseph Williams 37 Yd pass from Ryan Staub (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–33
- Q4 11:39HOUConner Weigman 7 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–33
- Q3 1:21HOUConner Weigman 1 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)14–26
- Q3 6:25HOUEthan Sanchez 35 Yd Field Goal 14–19
- Q2 0:26COLOZach Atkins 0 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)14–16
- Q2 1:45HOUEthan Sanchez 47 Yd Field Goal 7–16
- Q2 7:34COLOSimeon Price 38 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)7–13
- Q2 14:13HOUEthan Sanchez 43 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 3:52HOUDean Connors 4 Yd Run (Ethan Sanchez Kick)0–10
- Q1 6:42HOUEthan Sanchez 52 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HOU Elo 1441, COLO Elo 1660 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HOU +6.4 (35% to win) — 10.4 points clear of COLO's market line of -4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| COLO | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.9 (#101) | CORE overall | -0.9 (#65) |
| -5 / +7 | offense / defense | -1 / +0 |
| 1.79 | points / drive | 2.41 |
| 2.55 | allowed / drive | 2.08 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →