| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 7 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 37 |
| KU | 7 | 6 | 14 | 7 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (KU Elo 1680, CIN Elo 1504) plus home-field advantage. That projects KU -9.4 (76% to win) — 4.4 points of value on KU versus the market line of -5.
CIN up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Cincinnati 37, Kansas 34.
No — the model picked KU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had KU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Emmanuel Henderson Jr. for 93 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Emmanuel Henderson Jr. for 75 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
Jalon Daniels run for 6 yds to the CIN 1 Jalon Daniels fumbled, recovered by CIN Antwan Peek Jr.
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