Cincinnati vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CINTeam statsKU
- Q4 0:29CINTawee Walker 2 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)37–34
- Q4 1:45KULevi Wentz 6 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)30–34
- Q3 1:24CINStephen Rusnak 24 Yd Field Goal 30–27
- Q3 8:44KUEmmanuel Henderson Jr. 75 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)27–27
- Q3 8:54CINCyrus Allen 14 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)27–20
- Q3 11:38KUBoden Groen 24 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)20–20
- Q2 0:00CINStephen Rusnak 43 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q2 3:15KULaith Marjan 35 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 7:09CINCyrus Allen 10 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)17–10
- Q2 10:00KULaith Marjan 27 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 14:23CINStephen Rusnak 29 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 6:10CINTawee Walker 2 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:42KUEmmanuel Henderson Jr. 93 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBrendan Sorsby 29/43, 388 YDS, 2 TD
- RushEvan Pryor 6 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecCyrus Allen 11 REC, 128 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJalon Daniels 19/28, 445 YDS, 4 TD
- RushLeshon Williams 10 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecEmmanuel Henderson Jr. 5 REC, 214 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCIN up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:29CIN +88%
Tawee Walker run for 2 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
- Q1 11:53KU +65%
Max Fletcher punt for 53 yds
- Q4 8:02CIN +21%
Max Fletcher punt for 53 yds
- Q4 0:27KU +17%
Jalon Daniels run for 4 yds to the KU 29
- Q3 1:24CIN +14%
Stephen Rusnak 24 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 8:02KU +14%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Boden Groen for 22 yds to the KU 37 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Cincinnati vs. Kansas?
Cincinnati 37, Kansas 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked KU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CIN | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 603 | Total yards | 597 |
| 388 | Passing yards | 445 |
| 215 | Rushing yards | 152 |
| 29 | First downs | 26 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 3-8 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 29/44 | Comp/Att | 19/28 |
| 8.8 | Yards per pass | 15.9 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-68 | Penalties | 5-26 |
| 34:36 | Possession | 25:24 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:47 CIN punt on 4th & 2 at CIN 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:29CINTawee Walker 2 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)37–34
- Q4 1:45KULevi Wentz 6 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)30–34
- Q3 1:24CINStephen Rusnak 24 Yd Field Goal 30–27
- Q3 8:44KUEmmanuel Henderson Jr. 75 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)27–27
- Q3 8:54CINCyrus Allen 14 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)27–20
- Q3 11:38KUBoden Groen 24 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)20–20
- Q2 0:00CINStephen Rusnak 43 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q2 3:15KULaith Marjan 35 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 7:09CINCyrus Allen 10 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)17–10
- Q2 10:00KULaith Marjan 27 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 14:23CINStephen Rusnak 29 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 6:10CINTawee Walker 2 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:42KUEmmanuel Henderson Jr. 93 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1680, CIN Elo 1504 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KU -9.4 (74% to win) — 4.4 points clear of KU's market line of -5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CIN | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.7 (#50) | CORE overall | +4.9 (#57) |
| +12 / +5 | offense / defense | +10 / +6 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 2.34 |
| 2.77 | allowed / drive | 2.60 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →