BYU
5-0·Big 12· Elo 1701
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT1 | OT2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | 14 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| ARIZ | 7 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARIZ Elo 1467, BYU Elo 1701) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ +7 (30% to win) — 4.5 points of value on BYU versus the market line of +2.5.
ARIZ up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
BYU 33, Arizona 27.
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BYU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Bear Bachmeier pass complete to Parker Kingston for 75 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
Kedrick Reescano run for 36 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
Noah Fifita pass intercepted Isaiah Glasker return for 3 yds to the BYU 4
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