BYU vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BYUTeam statsARIZ
- 2OT 0:00BYUBear Bachmeier 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–27
- OT 0:00BYUWill Ferrin 45 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- OT 0:00ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 23 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q4 0:19BYUBear Bachmeier 2 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)24–24
- Q4 4:08BYUWill Ferrin 24 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q4 11:14ARIZKedrick Reescano 36 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)14–24
- Q2 0:40ARIZChris Hunter 35 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)14–17
- Q2 9:32ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 24 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q1 0:32ARIZKris Hutson 17 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:15BYUParker Kingston 75 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:55BYULJ Martin 28 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBear Bachmeier 12/29, 172 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushLJ Martin 25 CAR, 162 YDS, 1 TD
- RecParker Kingston 5 REC, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- PassNoah Fifita 25/45, 219 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKedrick Reescano 13 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKris Hutson 9 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARIZ up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:19BYU +92%
Bear Bachmeier run for 2 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
- 2OT 0:00ARIZ +82%
Bear Bachmeier 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- OT 0:00BYU +48%
Will Ferrin 45 Yd Field Goal
- 2OT 0:00BYU +32%
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. B.Bachmeier steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for C.Roberts. TWO-POINT ATTEMPT FAILS
- Q4 11:14ARIZ +26%
Kedrick Reescano run for 36 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
- Q2 0:40ARIZ +23%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 35 yds for a TD (Michael Salgado-Medina KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of BYU vs. Arizona?
BYU 33, Arizona 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
| BYU | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 430 | Total yards | 383 |
| 172 | Passing yards | 219 |
| 258 | Rushing yards | 164 |
| 24 | First downs | 23 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 4-17 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 4-6 |
| 12/29 | Comp/Att | 25/45 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 4.9 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-42 | Penalties | 4-28 |
| 32:47 | Possession | 27:13 |
Costliest call
Q2 12:51 BYU go for it on 4th & 9 at BYU 38. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.68 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- 2OT 0:00BYUBear Bachmeier 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)33–27
- OT 0:00BYUWill Ferrin 45 Yd Field Goal 27–27
- OT 0:00ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 23 Yd Field Goal 24–27
- Q4 0:19BYUBear Bachmeier 2 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)24–24
- Q4 4:08BYUWill Ferrin 24 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q4 11:14ARIZKedrick Reescano 36 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)14–24
- Q2 0:40ARIZChris Hunter 35 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)14–17
- Q2 9:32ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 24 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q1 0:32ARIZKris Hutson 17 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)14–7
- Q1 4:15BYUParker Kingston 75 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Will Ferrin Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:55BYULJ Martin 28 Yd Run (Will Ferrin Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARIZ Elo 1467, BYU Elo 1701 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ +7 (33% to win) — 4.5 points clear of BYU's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBYU leads 14–12–1 · BYU has won 5 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| BYU | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.0 (#20) | CORE overall | +12.4 (#33) |
| +10 / -8 | offense / defense | +5 / -8 |
| 2.61 | points / drive | 2.61 |
| 1.85 | allowed / drive | 1.75 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →