Buffalo vs. Minnesota: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BUFTeam statsMINN
- Q4 10:52MINNJalen Smith 60 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)10–23
- Q4 11:31MINNBrady Denaburg 25 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q3 6:48BUFVictor Snow 40 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)10–13
- Q3 11:39MINNBrady Denaburg 29 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 0:02MINNBrady Denaburg 38 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 7:56BUFJack Howes 36 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q2 13:53MINNJameson Geers 9 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTa'Quan Roberson 12/20, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAl-Jay Henderson 11 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecVictor Snow 5 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDrake Lindsey 19/35, 290 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDarius Taylor 30 CAR, 141 YDS
- RecJalen Smith 2 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMINN up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:31MINN +19%
Brady Denaburg 25 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 6:48BUF +18%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 40 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
- Q4 10:52MINN +16%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 60 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
- Q2 13:53MINN +14%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jameson Geers for 9 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
- Q2 7:56BUF +8%
Jack Howes 36 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 2:24BUF +8%
PENALTY BUFF Delay Of Game 5 yards from BUFF19 to BUFF14. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Buffalo vs. Minnesota?
Buffalo 10, Minnesota 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MINN) was correct.
| BUF | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 151 | Total yards | 443 |
| 107 | Passing yards | 290 |
| 44 | Rushing yards | 153 |
| 8 | First downs | 27 |
| 1-11 | 3rd down | 9-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 12/20 | Comp/Att | 19/35 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 2-10 |
| 21:32 | Possession | 38:28 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:17 BUF field goal on 4th & 3 at MINN 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:52MINNJalen Smith 60 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)10–23
- Q4 11:31MINNBrady Denaburg 25 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q3 6:48BUFVictor Snow 40 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)10–13
- Q3 11:39MINNBrady Denaburg 29 Yd Field Goal 3–13
- Q2 0:02MINNBrady Denaburg 38 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 7:56BUFJack Howes 36 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q2 13:53MINNJameson Geers 9 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MINN Elo 1616, BUF Elo 1416 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MINN -10.4 (76% to win) — 6.6 points clear of BUF's market line of -17. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BUF | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| -19.7 (#124) | CORE overall | -10.1 (#96) |
| -15 / +5 | offense / defense | -7 / +3 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 1.72 |
| 1.93 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →