| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| MINN | 0 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MINN Elo 1616, BUF Elo 1416) plus home-field advantage. That projects MINN -10.4 (78% to win) — 6.6 points of value on BUF versus the market line of -17.
MINN up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Buffalo 10, Minnesota 23.
Yes — the model's pick (MINN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MINN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 60 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
Drake Lindsey pass intercepted Mitchell Gonser return for 54 yds to the MINN 23
Jameson Geers run for no gain to the BUF 11
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
