Arkansas vs. Ole Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARKTeam statsMISS
- Q4 4:56ARKMike Washington Jr. 3 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)35–41
- Q4 10:58MISSLucas Carneiro 23 Yd Field Goal 28–41
- Q3 4:56MISSDe'Zhaun Stribling 6 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)28–38
- Q2 0:00MISSLucas Carneiro 36 Yd Field Goal 28–31
- Q2 1:18ARKTaylen Green 5 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)28–28
- Q2 3:17MISSHarrison Wallace III 4 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Lucas Carneiro Kick)21–28
- Q2 7:01ARKBraylen Russell 3 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)21–21
- Q2 11:31MISSTrinidad Chambliss 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–21
- Q2 13:22ARKMike Washington Jr. 47 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:16MISSTrinidad Chambliss 2 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:10ARKO'Mega Blake 30 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:14MISSKewan Lacy 2 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTaylen Green 22/35, 305 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTaylen Green 14 CAR, 115 YDS, 1 TD
- RecO'Mega Blake 6 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTrinidad Chambliss 21/29, 353 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTrinidad Chambliss 15 CAR, 62 YDS, 2 TD
- RecHarrison Wallace III 6 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMISS up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:18ARK +18%
Taylen Green run for 5 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
- Q2 7:01ARK +16%
Braylen Russell run for 3 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
- Q2 3:17MISS +15%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 4 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q2 13:22ARK +14%
Mike Washington Jr. run for 47 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
- Q3 4:56MISS +14%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 6 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q1 0:10ARK +13%
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 30 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas vs. Ole Miss?
Arkansas 35, Ole Miss 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
| ARK | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 526 | Total yards | 475 |
| 305 | Passing yards | 357 |
| 221 | Rushing yards | 118 |
| 29 | First downs | 25 |
| 9-12 | 3rd down | 8-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 22/35 | Comp/Att | 22/30 |
| 8.7 | Yards per pass | 11.9 |
| 6.0 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-68 | Penalties | 7-63 |
| 33:11 | Possession | 26:49 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:51 ARK field goal on 4th & 2 at MISS 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.69 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:56ARKMike Washington Jr. 3 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)35–41
- Q4 10:58MISSLucas Carneiro 23 Yd Field Goal 28–41
- Q3 4:56MISSDe'Zhaun Stribling 6 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)28–38
- Q2 0:00MISSLucas Carneiro 36 Yd Field Goal 28–31
- Q2 1:18ARKTaylen Green 5 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)28–28
- Q2 3:17MISSHarrison Wallace III 4 Yd pass from Austin Simmons (Lucas Carneiro Kick)21–28
- Q2 7:01ARKBraylen Russell 3 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)21–21
- Q2 11:31MISSTrinidad Chambliss 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–21
- Q2 13:22ARKMike Washington Jr. 47 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–14
- Q2 14:16MISSTrinidad Chambliss 2 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:10ARKO'Mega Blake 30 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:14MISSKewan Lacy 2 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MISS Elo 1922, ARK Elo 1674 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MISS -12.3 (80% to win) — 8.3 points clear of MISS's market line of -4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesArkansas leads 37–34–1 · Ole Miss has won 3 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| ARK | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.7 (#37) | CORE overall | +19.4 (#16) |
| +20 / +9 | offense / defense | +16 / -4 |
| 2.72 | points / drive | 3.33 |
| 3.48 | allowed / drive | 2.07 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →