| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARK | 7 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 35 |
| MISS | 7 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MISS Elo 1922, ARK Elo 1674) plus home-field advantage. That projects MISS -12.3 (82% to win) — 8.3 points of value on MISS versus the market line of -4.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ARK ahead, below = MISS ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
MISS up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Arkansas 35, Ole Miss 41.
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MISS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 64 yds to the ARK 1 for a 1ST down
Taylen Green pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 30 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
Mike Washington Jr. run for 47 yds for a TD (Scott Starzyk KICK)
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