| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASU | 3 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 27 |
| BAY | 3 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BAY Elo 1583, ASU Elo 1725) plus home-field advantage. That projects BAY +3.3 (40% to win) — 5.8 points of value on ASU versus the market line of -2.5.
ASU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Arizona State 27, Baylor 24.
Yes — the model's pick (ASU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ASU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Derek Eusebio for 61 yds to the BAY 26 for a 1ST down
Bryson Washington run for 41 yds to the ASU 1 for a 1ST down
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 23 yds to the ASU 34 for a 1ST down
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