Arizona State vs. Baylor: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ASUTeam statsBAY
- Q4 0:00ASUJesus Gomez 43 Yd Field Goal 27–24
- Q4 1:52BAYMichael Trigg 33 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)24–24
- Q4 5:29ASUJordyn Tyson 19 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jordyn Tyson Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)24–17
- Q4 9:02BAYMichael Trigg 1 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)16–17
- Q4 13:35ASUJesus Gomez 33 Yd Field Goal 16–10
- Q3 8:06ASUJesus Gomez 21 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 3:08BAYKole Wilson 8 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)10–10
- Q2 6:26ASUSam Leavitt 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)10–3
- Q1 4:08BAYConnor Hawkins 53 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 8:21ASUJesus Gomez 31 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassSam Leavitt 22/32, 221 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRaleek Brown 21 CAR, 80 YDS
- RecDerek Eusebio 2 REC, 78 YDS
- PassSawyer Robertson 25/39, 250 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushBryson Washington 17 CAR, 111 YDS
- RecMichael Trigg 5 REC, 71 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsASU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 13:35BAY +31%
Jesus Gomez 33 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 6:26ASU +11%
Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd for a TD (Jesus Gomez KICK)
- Q1 0:51ASU +10%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 47 yds, Josh Cameron returns for 31 yds to the BAY 45
- Q4 13:28BAY +9%
Bryson Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 24
- Q4 9:02BAY +9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)
- Q1 4:08BAY +9%
Connor Hawkins 53 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona State vs. Baylor?
Arizona State 27, Baylor 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ASU) was correct.
| ASU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 400 | Total yards | 357 |
| 221 | Passing yards | 250 |
| 179 | Rushing yards | 107 |
| 26 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 22/32 | Comp/Att | 25/39 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-70 | Penalties | 7-86 |
| 36:24 | Possession | 23:36 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:06 ASU field goal on 4th & 5 at BAY 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00ASUJesus Gomez 43 Yd Field Goal 27–24
- Q4 1:52BAYMichael Trigg 33 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)24–24
- Q4 5:29ASUJordyn Tyson 19 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Jordyn Tyson Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)24–17
- Q4 9:02BAYMichael Trigg 1 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)16–17
- Q4 13:35ASUJesus Gomez 33 Yd Field Goal 16–10
- Q3 8:06ASUJesus Gomez 21 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 3:08BAYKole Wilson 8 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Connor Hawkins Kick)10–10
- Q2 6:26ASUSam Leavitt 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)10–3
- Q1 4:08BAYConnor Hawkins 53 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 8:21ASUJesus Gomez 31 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1583, ASU Elo 1725 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY +3.3 (42% to win) — 5.8 points clear of ASU's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ASU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.2 (#44) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#54) |
| +2 / -6 | offense / defense | +6 / +0 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 2.31 |
| 2.22 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →