| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| MIZ | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MIZ Elo 1781, ALA Elo 1974) plus home-field advantage. That projects MIZ +5.3 (35% to win) — 2.3 points of value on ALA versus the market line of +3.
ALA up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Alabama 27, Missouri 24.
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ALA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jamal Roberts run for 39 yds to the ALA 34 for a 1ST down
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 16 yds for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)
Ty Simpson pass complete to Lotzeir Brooks for 29 yds to the MIZ 9 for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
