Alabama vs. Missouri: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ALATeam statsMIZ
- Q4 1:40MIZDonovan Olugbode 3 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Robert Meyer Kick)27–24
- Q4 3:16ALADaniel Hill 1 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)27–17
- Q3 0:09ALAConor Talty 22 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 13:18MIZBeau Pribula 5 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)17–17
- Q2 0:00MIZRobert Meyer 35 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 7:10ALAConor Talty 48 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 14:51ALAIsaiah Horton 16 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)14–7
- Q1 6:05ALAKevin Riley 6 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:10MIZBrett Norfleet 26 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Robert Meyer Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTy Simpson 23/31, 200 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJam Miller 20 CAR, 85 YDS
- RecLotzeir Brooks 4 REC, 58 YDS
- PassBeau Pribula 16/28, 162 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushBeau Pribula 11 CAR, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonovan Olugbode 3 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsALA up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:49MIZ +28%
Ahmad Hardy run for 6 yds to the MIZ 28
- Q4 1:40MIZ +27%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Donovan Olugbode for 3 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)
- Q4 1:35ALA +24%
Daniel Hill run for 3 yds to the MIZ 38
- Q3 13:18MIZ +22%
Beau Pribula run for 5 yds for a TD (Robert Meyer KICK)
- Q3 0:09ALA +21%
Conor Talty 22 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 0:00ALA +20%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 31
FAQ
What was the final score of Alabama vs. Missouri?
Alabama 27, Missouri 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
| ALA | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 325 | Total yards | 325 |
| 200 | Passing yards | 162 |
| 125 | Rushing yards | 163 |
| 22 | First downs | 14 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 1-11 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 23/31 | Comp/Att | 16/28 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-30 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 38:33 | Possession | 21:27 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:27 ALA punt on 4th & 3 at ALA 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:40MIZDonovan Olugbode 3 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Robert Meyer Kick)27–24
- Q4 3:16ALADaniel Hill 1 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)27–17
- Q3 0:09ALAConor Talty 22 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q3 13:18MIZBeau Pribula 5 Yd Run (Robert Meyer Kick)17–17
- Q2 0:00MIZRobert Meyer 35 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 7:10ALAConor Talty 48 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 14:51ALAIsaiah Horton 16 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)14–7
- Q1 6:05ALAKevin Riley 6 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:10MIZBrett Norfleet 26 Yd pass from Beau Pribula (Robert Meyer Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIZ Elo 1781, ALA Elo 1974 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIZ +5.3 (37% to win) — 2.3 points clear of ALA's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAlabama leads 7–2 · Alabama has won 7 straight · 11% have been one-possession games
| ALA | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.6 (#14) | CORE overall | +20.9 (#12) |
| +7 / -13 | offense / defense | +5 / -15 |
| 2.62 | points / drive | 2.45 |
| 1.94 | allowed / drive | 1.57 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →