Wagner vs. Sacred Heart: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Wagner0-1

▸0017

Sacred Heart

0010

Final

Campus FieldConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
WAGN	0	10	7	0	17
SACR	0	0	0	10	10

WAGNTeam statsSACR

219Total yards342

86Pass110

133Rush232

13First downs21

8-193rd down2-11

1Turnovers3

27:47Possession32:13

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:32SACRSam Renzi 24 Yd Field Goal 17–10
• Q4 14:31SACRJalen Madison 2 Yd Run (Sam Renzi Kick)17–7
• Q3 8:52WAGNJustin Wolf 10 Yd pass from Steven Krajewski (Ryan Liszner Kick)17–0
• Q2 0:00WAGNRyan Liszner 42 Yd Field Goal 10–0
• Q2 6:01WAGNJunior Wily 52 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Liszner Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

SACR −11.5

Against the number

WAGN covered

line SACR −11.5

What the numbers say

• WAGN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SACR did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 6.0

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

SACR 100%50%WAGN 100%

Kickoff159 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

SACR (top)WAGN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SACR 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

SACR −11.5

Closing total

39.5

Model line

—

Actual result

WAGN 17 – 10 SACR

Leaders

Wagner

• PassSteven Krajewski 10/26, 86 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushZach Palmer-Smith 24 CAR, 89 YDS
• RecTrevor Shorter 2 REC, 45 YDS

Sacred Heart

• PassRob McCoy Jr. 8/18, 81 YDS, 1 INT
• RushMalik Grant 27 CAR, 133 YDS
• RecMalik Grant 3 REC, 40 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.9sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

140

Points / snap

0.19

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

WAGN up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 839 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

97%

WAGN went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WKansas vs Missouri State48-17WOhio State vs Indiana23-3WStanford vs Hawai'i37-24WSouth Carolina vs North Carolina31-17WPenn State vs West Virginia38-15

Fourth downs

19 calls

SACR gave up 4.4 points to the model on fourth down.WAGN 6/9 · SACR 3/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Wagner vs. Sacred Heart?

Wagner 17, Sacred Heart 10.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked SACR, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

WAGN

SACR

29%

Success rate

47%

-0.27

EPA / pass

-0.47

-0.06

EPA / rush

0.13

24%

Early-down success

53%

26%

Pass success

48%

32%

Rush success

46%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

8%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

15%

42%

Pass rate

39%

8.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.0

WAGN

8.2 yards to go on 3rd down

65 scrimmage snaps

SACR

6.0 yards to go on 3rd down

75 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

WAGN		SACR
219	Total yards	342
86	Passing yards	110
133	Rushing yards	232
13	First downs	21
8-19	3rd down	2-11
0-1	4th down	1-3
10/27	Comp/Att	12/27
3.2	Yards per pass	4.1
3.4	Yards per rush	4.9
1	Turnovers	3
3-25	Penalties	4-40
27:47	Possession	32:13

Fourth downs

19 calls

WAGN

6/9 with the model

−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob

SACR

3/8 with the model

−4.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 1:27 SACR punt on 4th & 1 at SACR 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.36 points.

Every call, priced (19)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

WAGN 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →SACR 3/12 scoring drives

WAGNPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 30Q1

SACRINT8 pl, 33 yds· own 19Q1

WAGNDOWNS5 pl, 24 yds· own 42Q1

SACRPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 34Q1

WAGNPUNT6 pl, 21 yds· own 2Q1

SACRPUNT8 pl, 23 yds· own 40Q1

WAGNPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 2Q2

SACRINT4 pl, 15 yds· own 30Q2

WAGNPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· opp 43Q2

SACRTD5 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

SACRPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2

WAGNINT4 pl, 14 yds· own 44Q2

SACRPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 37Q2

WAGNFG9 pl, 50 yds· own 26Q2

SACRPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3

WAGNTD12 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q3

SACRDOWNS14 pl, 47 yds· own 23Q3

WAGNPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 30Q3

SACRTD9 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q3

WAGNPUNT5 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q4

SACRDOWNS9 pl, 37 yds· own 34Q4

WAGNPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 29Q4

SACRFG8 pl, 55 yds· own 38Q4

WAGNUncateg6 pl, 16 yds· opp 45Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:32SACRSam Renzi 24 Yd Field Goal 17–10
• Q4 14:31SACRJalen Madison 2 Yd Run (Sam Renzi Kick)17–7
• Q3 8:52WAGNJustin Wolf 10 Yd pass from Steven Krajewski (Ryan Liszner Kick)17–0
• Q2 0:00WAGNRyan Liszner 42 Yd Field Goal 10–0
• Q2 6:01WAGNJunior Wily 52 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Liszner Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →