Morgan State vs. Richmond: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Morgan State

▸0017

Richmond

0010

Final

E. Claiborne Robins Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MORG	7	0	0	10	17
RICH	7	0	3	0	10

MORGTeam statsRICH

213Total yards264

99Pass169

114Rush95

15First downs18

4-133rd down3-12

3Turnovers4

29:50Possession30:10

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:24MORGJabriel Johnson 10 Yd Run (Beckett Leary Kick)17–10
• Q4 10:39MORGBeckett Leary 38 Yd Field Goal 10–10
• Q3 1:26RICHAndrew Lopez 28 Yd Field Goal 7–10
• Q1 6:10MORGCarson Baker 1 Yd Run (Beckett Leary Kick)7–7
• Q1 9:45RICHKyle Wickersham 1 Yd Run (Andrew Lopez Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

RICH −25.5

Against the number

MORG covered

line RICH −25.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

RICH 100%50%MORG 100%

Kickoff149 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

RICH (top)MORG (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: RICH 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

RICH −25.5

Closing total

43.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MORG 17 – 10 RICH

Leaders

Morgan State

• PassCarson Baker 5/8, 68 YDS, 1 INT
• RushJ.J. Davis 12 CAR, 73 YDS
• RecAnthony James Jr. 3 REC, 37 YDS

Richmond

• PassKyle Wickersham 23/30, 169 YDS, 1 INT
• RushKyle Wickersham 21 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
• RecNick DeGennaro 6 REC, 46 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

28.6sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

126

Points / snap

0.21

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

RICH up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,455 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

61%

RICH went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

LMerrimack vs Holy Cross24-49LPurdue vs Fresno State35-39WBoston College vs Holy Cross31-28LNorth Texas vs Florida International39-48LEast Carolina vs Marshall13-31

Fourth downs

17 calls

RICH gave up 0.4 points to the model on fourth down.MORG 5/6 · RICH 7/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Morgan State vs. Richmond?

Morgan State 17, Richmond 10.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked RICH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MORG

RICH

32%

Success rate

48%

-0.20

EPA / pass

0.00

0.01

EPA / rush

0.03

33%

Early-down success

52%

25%

Pass success

40%

35%

Rush success

56%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

9%

28%

Stuffed rush rate

16%

27%

Pass rate

52%

7.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.8

MORG

7.9 yards to go on 3rd down

59 scrimmage snaps

RICH

7.8 yards to go on 3rd down

67 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MORG		RICH
213	Total yards	264
99	Passing yards	169
114	Rushing yards	95
15	First downs	18
4-13	3rd down	3-12
0-1	4th down	1-1
7/13	Comp/Att	23/30
7.6	Yards per pass	5.6
2.5	Yards per rush	2.6
3	Turnovers	4
4-28	Penalties	7-45
29:50	Possession	30:10

Fourth downs

17 calls

MORG

5/6 with the model

nothing given up

RICH

7/8 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 10:22 RICH punt on 4th & 9 at MORG 38. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.41 points.

Every call, priced (17)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MORG 3/14 scoring drives← own end zone →RICH 2/13 scoring drives

RICHTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

MORGTD7 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q1

RICHINT2 pl, -1 yds· own 26Q1

MORGPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· opp 44Q1

RICHPUNT8 pl, 40 yds· own 7Q1

MORGPUNT4 pl, 12 yds· own 17Q2

RICHMISS13 pl, 52 yds· own 21Q2

MORGINT4 pl, 26 yds· own 27Q2

RICHMISS10 pl, 38 yds· own 37Q2

MORGMISS6 pl, 39 yds· own 31Q2

MORGPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 8Q3

RICHPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· opp 39Q3

MORGPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 20Q3

RICHPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 36Q3

MORGFUM4 pl, -2 yds· own 26Q3

RICHFUM2 pl, -7 yds· opp 24Q3

MORGFUM2 pl, -5 yds· own 31Q3

RICHFG7 pl, 15 yds· opp 26Q3

MORGFG12 pl, 59 yds· own 21Q3

RICHPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 13Q4

MORGPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· midfieldQ4

RICHFUM2 pl, -5 yds· own 15Q4

MORGTD1 pl, 10 yds· opp 10Q4

RICHPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q4

MORGPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 15Q4

MORGDOWNS6 pl, 10 yds· opp 34Q4

RICHEND1 pl, 32 yds· own 24Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 6:24MORGJabriel Johnson 10 Yd Run (Beckett Leary Kick)17–10
• Q4 10:39MORGBeckett Leary 38 Yd Field Goal 10–10
• Q3 1:26RICHAndrew Lopez 28 Yd Field Goal 7–10
• Q1 6:10MORGCarson Baker 1 Yd Run (Beckett Leary Kick)7–7
• Q1 9:45RICHKyle Wickersham 1 Yd Run (Andrew Lopez Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →