Kent State vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KENTTeam statsFRES
- Q4 10:05FRESDylan Lynch 40 Yd Field Goal 10–53
- Q3 1:26FRESJaelen Gill Fumble Recovery in End Zone (Dylan Lynch Kick)10–50
- Q3 9:06FRESTre Watson 2 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)10–43
- Q2 0:37FRESElijah Gilliam 1 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)10–36
- Q2 9:36FRESJalen Moss 12 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)10–29
- Q2 12:16KENTAndrew Glass 46 Yd Field Goal 10–22
- Q1 3:07FRESElijah Gilliam 2 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–22
- Q1 5:48KENTXavier Williams 18 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)7–15
- Q1 10:01FRESElijah Gilliam 32 Yd pass from Jaelen Gill (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–15
- Q1 12:06FRESErik Brooks 40 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Logan Fife Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
How the model called it
- PassMichael Alaimo 8/15, 102 YDS
- RushXavier Williams 15 CAR, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJameel Gardner Jr. 2 REC, 49 YDS
- PassMikey Keene 24/31, 325 YDS, 4 TD
- RushMalik Sherrod 10 CAR, 71 YDS
- RecJalen Moss 7 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFRES up 41 entering the 4th quarter. Across 196 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:06FRES +6%
Erik Brooks 40 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Logan Fife Run for Two-Point Conversion)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kent State vs. Fresno State?
Kent State 10, Fresno State 53.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FRES) was correct.
| KENT | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 231 | Total yards | 513 |
| 102 | Passing yards | 370 |
| 129 | Rushing yards | 143 |
| 11 | First downs | 29 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 8-10 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 8/15 | Comp/Att | 26/34 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 10.9 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-72 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 27:39 | Possession | 32:21 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:05FRESDylan Lynch 40 Yd Field Goal 10–53
- Q3 1:26FRESJaelen Gill Fumble Recovery in End Zone (Dylan Lynch Kick)10–50
- Q3 9:06FRESTre Watson 2 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)10–43
- Q2 0:37FRESElijah Gilliam 1 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)10–36
- Q2 9:36FRESJalen Moss 12 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Dylan Lynch Kick)10–29
- Q2 12:16KENTAndrew Glass 46 Yd Field Goal 10–22
- Q1 3:07FRESElijah Gilliam 2 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–22
- Q1 5:48KENTXavier Williams 18 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)7–15
- Q1 10:01FRESElijah Gilliam 32 Yd pass from Jaelen Gill (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–15
- Q1 12:06FRESErik Brooks 40 Yd pass from Mikey Keene (Logan Fife Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–8
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1723, KENT Elo 1245 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FRES -21.5 (91% to win) — 6.0 points clear of KENT's market line of -27.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| KENT | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| -33.4 (#133) | CORE overall | -3.7 (#81) |
| -17 / +17 | offense / defense | -3 / +1 |
| 1.12 | points / drive | 2.66 |
| 3.28 | allowed / drive | 1.93 |
| 37% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +16 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →