Alcorn State vs. Stephen F. Austin: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Alcorn State0-1

0010

Stephen F. Austin0-1

▸0038

Final

Homer Bryce Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
ALCO	0	10	0	0	10
STEP	5	10	2	21	38

ALCOTeam statsSTEP

229Total yards485

84Pass237

145Rush248

11First downs23

4-133rd down8-15

0Turnovers3

29:47Possession30:13

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:47STEPJerrell Wimbley 4 Yd pass from Brian Mauer (Chris Campos Kick)10–38
• Q4 11:45STEPJerrell Wimbley 64 Yd Run (Chris Campos Kick)10–31
• Q4 14:22STEPJerrell Wimbley 6 Yd Run (Chris Campos Kick)10–24
• Q2 2:41ALCONoah Kiani 33 Yd Field Goal 10–15
• Q2 6:55ALCOJarveon Howard 6 Yd Run (Noah Kiani Kick)7–15
• Q2 10:01STEPBrian Mauer 3 Yd Run (Chris Campos Kick)0–15
• Q2 14:31STEPChris Campos 30 Yd Field Goal 0–8
• Q1 6:38STEPChris Campos 37 Yd Field Goal 0–5
• Q1 13:05STEPTeam Safety0–2

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

STEP 100%50%ALCO 100%

Kickoff60 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

STEP (top)ALCO (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: STEP 100%

Leaders

Alcorn State

• PassAaron Allen 5/10, 53 YDS
• RushJarveon Howard 17 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
• RecMalik Rodgers 1 REC, 28 YDS

Stephen F. Austin

• PassBrian Maurer 18/37, 237 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
• RushJerrell Wimbley 18 CAR, 122 YDS, 2 TD
• RecLawton Rikel 6 REC, 91 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

63.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

44

Points / snap

1.09

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

STEP up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,966 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

72%

STEP went on to win

A solid but not safe lead

Most comparable games

LAkron vs Temple21-24WMiami vs Texas A&M48-33WMiami (OH) vs Cincinnati38-24LApp State vs Wyoming19-30LMcNeese vs Eastern Illinois28-31

Fourth downs

13 calls

ALCO gave up 0.9 points to the model on fourth down.ALCO 7/8 · STEP 5/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Alcorn State vs. Stephen F. Austin?

Alcorn State 10, Stephen F. Austin 38.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (STEP) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

ALCO

STEP

47%

Success rate

48%

0.02

EPA / pass

-0.20

0.59

EPA / rush

1.08

46%

Early-down success

46%

38%

Pass success

40%

57%

Rush success

57%

20%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

0%

Stuffed rush rate

0%

53%

Pass rate

52%

9.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

9.2

ALCO

9.0 yards to go on 3rd down

15 scrimmage snaps

STEP

9.2 yards to go on 3rd down

29 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

ALCO		STEP
229	Total yards	485
84	Passing yards	237
145	Rushing yards	248
11	First downs	23
4-13	3rd down	8-15
0-1	4th down	1-1
7/18	Comp/Att	18/37
4.7	Yards per pass	6.4
3.9	Yards per rush	6.5
0	Turnovers	3
8-64	Penalties	4-30
29:47	Possession	30:13

Fourth downs

13 calls

ALCO

7/8 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

STEP

5/5 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q2 2:41 ALCO field goal on 4th & 1 at STEP 16. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.92 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

ALCO 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →STEP 6/12 scoring drives

ALCOPUNT4 pl, -10 yds· own 13Q1

STEPPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 40Q1

ALCOPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 21Q1

STEPFG11 pl, 26 yds· opp 27Q1

ALCODOWNS11 pl, 48 yds· opp 39Q1

STEPFG5 pl, 41 yds· opp 21Q1

ALCOPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 27Q2

STEPTD8 pl, 68 yds· opp 3Q2

ALCOTD7 pl, 75 yds· opp 22Q2

STEPINT2 pl, 1 yds· own 33Q2

ALCOFG7 pl, 41 yds· opp 16Q2

STEPMISS11 pl, 57 yds· own 44Q2

STEPPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 31Q3

ALCOPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 23Q3

STEPINT3 pl, 0 yds· opp 43Q3

ALCOPUNT4 pl, -3 yds· own 49Q3

STEPINT6 pl, 76 yds· opp 5Q3

STEPTD12 pl, 67 yds· opp 17Q3

ALCOPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 19Q4

STEPTD2 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q4

ALCOPUNT6 pl, 29 yds· opp 46Q4

STEPTD12 pl, 80 yds· own 35Q4

ALCOUncateg5 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:47STEPJerrell Wimbley 4 Yd pass from Brian Mauer (Chris Campos Kick)10–38
• Q4 11:45STEPJerrell Wimbley 64 Yd Run (Chris Campos Kick)10–31
• Q4 14:22STEPJerrell Wimbley 6 Yd Run (Chris Campos Kick)10–24
• Q2 2:41ALCONoah Kiani 33 Yd Field Goal 10–15
• Q2 6:55ALCOJarveon Howard 6 Yd Run (Noah Kiani Kick)7–15
• Q2 10:01STEPBrian Mauer 3 Yd Run (Chris Campos Kick)0–15
• Q2 14:31STEPChris Campos 30 Yd Field Goal 0–8
• Q1 6:38STEPChris Campos 37 Yd Field Goal 0–5
• Q1 13:05STEPTeam Safety0–2

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →