Navy vs. Air Force: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NAVYTeam statsAF
- Q4 3:50AFWarren Bryan 1 Yd Run (Anth Rodriguez Kick)7–40
- Q4 9:14AFBrad Roberts 2 Yd Run (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl Kick)7–33
- Q4 12:08AFMatthew Murla 2 Yd Run (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl Kick)7–26
- Q3 11:45AFTevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 40 Yd Field Goal 7–19
- Q2 0:00AFTevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 32 Yd Field Goal 7–16
- Q2 6:36AFTevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 35 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 10:58AFHaaziq Daniels 1 Yd Run (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:50NAVYMyles Fells 73 Yd pass from Tyger Goslin (Bijan Nichols Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:44AFTevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 48 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassTyger Goslin 6/15, 137 YDS, 1 TD
- RushNelson Smith 7 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecMyles Fells 1 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- PassHaaziq Daniels 4/9, 41 YDS
- RushTimothy Jackson 19 CAR, 118 YDS
- RecDaniel Morris 3 REC, 29 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAF up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:50NAVY +18%
Tyger Goslin pass complete to Myles Fells for 73 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
- Q2 10:58AF +17%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)
- Q2 6:36AF +6%
Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 35 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 7:44AF +6%
Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 48 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:00AF +6%
Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 32 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Navy vs. Air Force?
Navy 7, Air Force 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (AF) was correct.
| NAVY | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 241 | Total yards | 410 |
| 151 | Passing yards | 41 |
| 90 | Rushing yards | 369 |
| 10 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 2-9 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 8/18 | Comp/Att | 4/9 |
| 8.4 | Yards per pass | 4.6 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 7.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 3-23 |
| 25:52 | Possession | 34:08 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:19 AF punt on 4th & 3 at NAVY 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:50AFWarren Bryan 1 Yd Run (Anth Rodriguez Kick)7–40
- Q4 9:14AFBrad Roberts 2 Yd Run (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl Kick)7–33
- Q4 12:08AFMatthew Murla 2 Yd Run (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl Kick)7–26
- Q3 11:45AFTevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 40 Yd Field Goal 7–19
- Q2 0:00AFTevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 32 Yd Field Goal 7–16
- Q2 6:36AFTevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 35 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 10:58AFHaaziq Daniels 1 Yd Run (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl Kick)7–10
- Q2 14:50NAVYMyles Fells 73 Yd pass from Tyger Goslin (Bijan Nichols Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:44AFTevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 48 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AF Elo 1645, NAVY Elo 1448 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AF -10.3 (76% to win) — 16.8 points clear of AF's market line of +6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#3 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #62 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →Air Force leads 34–24 · Navy has won 2 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| NAVY | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.6 (#101) | CORE overall | +13.6 (#20) |
| -10 / +2 | offense / defense | +12 / -2 |
| -29 | pass over expected | -28 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →