Liberty vs. Western Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LIBTeam statsWKU
- Q4 3:04WKUCraig Burt Jr. 24 Yd pass from Tyrrell Pigrome (Brayden Narveson Kick)30–24
- Q4 11:43LIBMalik Willis 18 Yd Run (Alex Barbir PAT failed)30–17
- Q3 1:33LIBShedro Louis 29 Yd Run (Alex Barbir Kick)24–17
- Q3 10:56WKUDalvin Smith 24 Yd pass from Tyrrell Pigrome (Brayden Narveson Kick)17–17
- Q2 6:15WKUMitchell Tinsley 6 Yd pass from Tyrrell Pigrome (Brayden Narveson Kick)17–10
- Q2 10:15LIBMalik Willis 4 Yd Run (Alex Barbir Kick)17–3
- Q2 14:56WKUBrayden Narveson 43 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 5:21LIBAlex Barbir 24 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 11:27LIBMalik Willis 4 Yd Run (Alex Barbir Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WKU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and LIB did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.1 vs 3rd & 6.9
- PassMalik Willis 13/21, 133 YDS
- RushMalik Willis 21 CAR, 168 YDS, 3 TD
- RecCJ Yarbrough 2 REC, 53 YDS
- PassTyrrell Pigrome 18/25, 181 YDS, 3 TD
- RushTyrrell Pigrome 14 CAR, 74 YDS
- RecMitchell Tinsley 6 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLIB up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 1:33LIB +41%
Shedro Louis run for 29 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)
- Q3 10:56WKU +25%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 24 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
- Q4 1:28LIB +23%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the WKent 42
- Q2 10:15LIB +19%
Malik Willis run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)
- Q2 6:15WKU +18%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 6 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
- Q1 11:27LIB +18%
Malik Willis run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Liberty vs. Western Kentucky?
Liberty 30, Western Kentucky 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WKU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LIB | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 487 | Total yards | 291 |
| 133 | Passing yards | 181 |
| 354 | Rushing yards | 110 |
| 27 | First downs | 19 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 13/21 | Comp/Att | 18/25 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-89 | Penalties | 2-19 |
| 34:59 | Possession | 25:01 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:30 WKU punt on 4th & 1 at WKU 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:04WKUCraig Burt Jr. 24 Yd pass from Tyrrell Pigrome (Brayden Narveson Kick)30–24
- Q4 11:43LIBMalik Willis 18 Yd Run (Alex Barbir PAT failed)30–17
- Q3 1:33LIBShedro Louis 29 Yd Run (Alex Barbir Kick)24–17
- Q3 10:56WKUDalvin Smith 24 Yd pass from Tyrrell Pigrome (Brayden Narveson Kick)17–17
- Q2 6:15WKUMitchell Tinsley 6 Yd pass from Tyrrell Pigrome (Brayden Narveson Kick)17–10
- Q2 10:15LIBMalik Willis 4 Yd Run (Alex Barbir Kick)17–3
- Q2 14:56WKUBrayden Narveson 43 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 5:21LIBAlex Barbir 24 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 11:27LIBMalik Willis 4 Yd Run (Alex Barbir Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WKU Elo 1480, LIB Elo 1390 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WKU -6 (67% to win) — 9.0 points clear of LIB's market line of -15. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#47 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #14 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →| LIB | WKU | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.6 (#46) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#94) |
| +10 / +5 | offense / defense | -13 / -3 |
| 3.17 | points / drive | 1.72 |
| 1.93 | allowed / drive | 2.30 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →