Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsCCU
- Q4 4:12CCUBraydon Bennett 35 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)23–52
- Q4 5:07ARSTBrandon Bowling 44 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe PAT blocked)23–45
- Q4 6:16CCUShermari Jones 15 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)17–45
- Q4 10:29CCUJaivon Heiligh 6 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Massimo Biscardi Kick)17–38
- Q4 14:05ARSTBlake Grupe 42 Yd Field Goal 17–31
- Q3 6:57CCUKameron Brown 3 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Massimo Biscardi Kick)14–31
- Q2 0:58CCUCJ Marable 3 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Massimo Biscardi Kick)14–24
- Q2 10:28CCUMassimo Biscardi 42 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 12:04CCUCJ Marable 12 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)14–14
- Q1 2:30ARSTBrandon Bowling 21 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Blake Grupe Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:26CCUIsaiah Likely 72 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Massimo Biscardi Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:38ARSTDahu Green 33 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Blake Grupe Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 34% success rate
- PassLayne Hatcher 12/23, 184 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushLincoln Pare 6 CAR, 18 YDS
- RecBrandon Bowling 7 REC, 115 YDS, 2 TD
- PassGrayson McCall 20/29, 322 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushCJ Marable 15 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaivon Heiligh 7 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCCU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:58CCU +23%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Marable for 3 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
- Q2 12:04CCU +19%
CJ Marable run for 12 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
- Q1 5:26CCU +18%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 72 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
- Q1 2:30ARST +18%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 21 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
- Q1 5:38ARST +18%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Dahu Green for 33 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
- Q3 6:57CCU +15%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 3 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina?
Arkansas State 23, Coastal Carolina 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARST | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 385 | Total yards | 539 |
| 349 | Passing yards | 322 |
| 36 | Rushing yards | 217 |
| 15 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 10-17 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 28/44 | Comp/Att | 20/29 |
| 7.9 | Yards per pass | 11.1 |
| 1.9 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-31 | Penalties | 3-31 |
| 18:39 | Possession | 41:21 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:45 ARST punt on 4th & 3 at ARST 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.17 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:12CCUBraydon Bennett 35 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)23–52
- Q4 5:07ARSTBrandon Bowling 44 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe PAT blocked)23–45
- Q4 6:16CCUShermari Jones 15 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)17–45
- Q4 10:29CCUJaivon Heiligh 6 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Massimo Biscardi Kick)17–38
- Q4 14:05ARSTBlake Grupe 42 Yd Field Goal 17–31
- Q3 6:57CCUKameron Brown 3 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Massimo Biscardi Kick)14–31
- Q2 0:58CCUCJ Marable 3 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Massimo Biscardi Kick)14–24
- Q2 10:28CCUMassimo Biscardi 42 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q2 12:04CCUCJ Marable 12 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi Kick)14–14
- Q1 2:30ARSTBrandon Bowling 21 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Blake Grupe Kick)14–7
- Q1 5:26CCUIsaiah Likely 72 Yd pass from Grayson McCall (Massimo Biscardi Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:38ARSTDahu Green 33 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Blake Grupe Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CCU Elo 1351, ARST Elo 1448 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CCU +1.5 (47% to win) — 2.0 points clear of CCU's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#10 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #76 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →| ARST | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.6 (#85) | CORE overall | +17.2 (#12) |
| +2 / +8 | offense / defense | +13 / -4 |
| 2.50 | points / drive | 3.43 |
| 2.95 | allowed / drive | 1.81 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →