Oklahoma vs. Kansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OUTeam statsKSU
- Q4 1:45OUGabe Brkic 39 Yd Field Goal41–48
- Q4 5:36OUJalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jalen Hurts Pass to CeeDee Lamb for Two-Point Conversion)38–48
- Q4 12:32OUCeeDee Lamb 70 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Gabe Brkic Kick)30–48
- Q4 12:54KSUJames Gilbert 2 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)23–48
- Q3 5:34KSUSkylar Thompson 3 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)23–41
- Q3 7:31KSUSkylar Thompson 3 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)23–34
- Q3 11:01KSUBlake Lynch 37 Yd Field Goal23–27
- Q2 0:00OUGabe Brkic 50 Yd Field Goal23–24
- Q2 0:23KSUSkylar Thompson 14 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)20–24
- Q2 1:22KSUBlake Lynch 35 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q2 7:26OUGabe Brkic 25 Yd Field Goal20–14
- Q2 12:12KSUJoshua Youngblood 4 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)17–14
- Q1 1:58OUJalen Hurts 7 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick)17–7
- Q1 4:07KSUSkylar Thompson 4 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)10–7
- Q1 9:21OUJalen Hurts 10 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick)10–0
- Q1 13:21OUGabe Brkic 44 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassJalen Hurts 19/26, 395 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJalen Hurts 19 CAR, 96 YDS, 3 TD
- RecCeeDee Lamb 5 REC, 135 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSkylar Thompson 18/28, 213 YDS
- RushJames Gilbert 13 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDalton Schoen 5 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKSU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:31KSU +36%
Skylar Thompson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK)
- Q2 0:23KSU +21%
Skylar Thompson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK)
- Q3 5:34KSU +17%
Skylar Thompson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK)
- Q4 0:40KSU +13%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 48
- Q3 11:01KSU +12%
Blake Lynch 37 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 12:12KSU +11%
Joshua Youngblood run for 4 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma vs. Kansas State?
Oklahoma 41, Kansas State 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OU | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 497 | Total yards | 426 |
| 395 | Passing yards | 213 |
| 102 | Rushing yards | 213 |
| 18 | First downs | 24 |
| 3-8 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 19/27 | Comp/Att | 18/28 |
| 14.6 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-51 | Penalties | 4-36 |
| 21:52 | Possession | 38:08 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:01 KSU punt on 4th & 1 at KSU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.18 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:45OUGabe Brkic 39 Yd Field Goal41–48
- Q4 5:36OUJalen Hurts 1 Yd Run (Jalen Hurts Pass to CeeDee Lamb for Two-Point Conversion)38–48
- Q4 12:32OUCeeDee Lamb 70 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Gabe Brkic Kick)30–48
- Q4 12:54KSUJames Gilbert 2 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)23–48
- Q3 5:34KSUSkylar Thompson 3 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)23–41
- Q3 7:31KSUSkylar Thompson 3 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)23–34
- Q3 11:01KSUBlake Lynch 37 Yd Field Goal23–27
- Q2 0:00OUGabe Brkic 50 Yd Field Goal23–24
- Q2 0:23KSUSkylar Thompson 14 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)20–24
- Q2 1:22KSUBlake Lynch 35 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q2 7:26OUGabe Brkic 25 Yd Field Goal20–14
- Q2 12:12KSUJoshua Youngblood 4 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)17–14
- Q1 1:58OUJalen Hurts 7 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick)17–7
- Q1 4:07KSUSkylar Thompson 4 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)10–7
- Q1 9:21OUJalen Hurts 10 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick)10–0
- Q1 13:21OUGabe Brkic 44 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KSU Elo 1616, OU Elo 2025 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KSU +14 (19% to win) — 9.5 points clear of KSU's market line of +23.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#18 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #5 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds · #2 of 51 in 2019 by biggest poll gap.
The 2019 upset archive →Oklahoma leads 76–22–4 · 27% have been one-possession games
| OU | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +27.0 (#6) | CORE overall | +4.0 (#46) |
| +26 / -1 | offense / defense | +2 / -2 |
| 3.41 | points / drive | 2.32 |
| 2.28 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →