Louisiana Tech vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LTTeam statsMIA
- Q4 1:15LTJ'Mar Smith 8 Yd Run (Bailey Hale Kick)14–0
- Q2 9:34LTIsrael Tucker 26 Yd pass from J'Mar Smith (Bailey Hale Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassJ'Mar Smith 13/28, 163 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJustin Henderson 22 CAR, 95 YDS
- RecMalik Stanley 3 REC, 75 YDS
- PassJarren Williams 9/20, 94 YDS, 1 INT
- RushCam'Ron Harris 12 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecK.J. Osborn 5 REC, 56 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLT up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 9:34LT +21%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Israel Tucker for 26 yds for a TD, (Bailey Hale KICK)
- Q4 2:19LT +12%
Justin Henderson run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 34
- Q4 8:50LT +12%
Justin Henderson run for 2 yds to the LaTch 12
- Q4 12:28LT +11%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Griffin Hebert
- Q3 7:08LT +7%
Israel Tucker run for 6 yds to the LaTch 22
- Q3 0:31MIA +7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 9
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana Tech vs. Miami?
Louisiana Tech 14, Miami 0.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LT | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 337 | Total yards | 227 |
| 163 | Passing yards | 153 |
| 174 | Rushing yards | 74 |
| 18 | First downs | 15 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 13/28 | Comp/Att | 15/34 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 4.5 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-49 | Penalties | 7-65 |
| 31:26 | Possession | 28:34 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:35 MIA punt on 4th & 1 at MIA 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:15LTJ'Mar Smith 8 Yd Run (Bailey Hale Kick)14–0
- Q2 9:34LTIsrael Tucker 26 Yd pass from J'Mar Smith (Bailey Hale Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1571, LT Elo 1525 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects MIA -1.8 (56% to win) — 5.2 points clear of LT's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#54 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #60 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →| LT | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.8 (#54) | CORE overall | +8.7 (#35) |
| -1 / -3 | offense / defense | -2 / -11 |
| 2.54 | points / drive | 1.94 |
| 1.48 | allowed / drive | 1.78 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →