Navy vs. Hawai'i: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NAVYTeam statsHAW
- Q4 2:46NAVYZach Abey 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)41–59
- Q4 4:45HAWJohn Ursua 9 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)35–59
- Q4 11:05HAWJoJo Ward 75 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)35–52
- Q4 12:06NAVYTre Walker 19 Yd pass from Malcolm Perry (Bennett Moehring Kick)35–45
- Q4 14:07HAWCedric Byrd 31 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)28–45
- Q3 6:35NAVYZach Abey 7 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)28–38
- Q3 8:08NAVYZach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)21–38
- Q2 0:00HAWRyan Meskell 23 Yd Field Goal 14–38
- Q2 4:02NAVYMalcolm Perry 75 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)14–35
- Q2 4:17HAWJohn Ursua 50 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)7–35
- Q2 6:52NAVYZach Abey 3 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)7–28
- Q2 11:08HAWMaxwell Hendrie 19 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Ryan Meskell Kick)0–28
- Q2 13:18HAWJoJo Ward 34 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)0–21
- Q1 3:13HAWFred Holly III 1 Yd Run (Ryan Meskell Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:12HAWCedric Byrd 7 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassGarret Lewis 5/9, 66 YDS
- RushMalcolm Perry 17 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTaylor Jackson 3 REC, 38 YDS
- PassCole McDonald 30/41, 428 YDS, 6 TD
- RushFred Holly III 17 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJohn Ursua 10 REC, 167 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHAW up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:35NAVY +23%
Zach Abey run for 7 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
- Q1 3:13HAW +21%
Fred Holly III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
- Q2 13:18HAW +18%
Cole McDonald pass complete to JoJo Ward for 34 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
- Q1 9:12HAW +18%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
- Q4 12:06NAVY +14%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Tre Walker for 19 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
- Q4 14:07HAW +13%
Cole McDonald pass complete to Cedric Byrd for 31 yds for a TD, (Ryan Meskell KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Navy vs. Hawai'i?
Navy 41, Hawai'i 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NAVY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NAVY | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| 411 | Total yards | 522 |
| 85 | Passing yards | 436 |
| 326 | Rushing yards | 86 |
| 19 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 6/13 | Comp/Att | 31/42 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 10.4 |
| 6.7 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-18 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 29:23 | Possession | 30:37 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:00 HAW field goal on 4th & 4 at NAVY 4. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.34 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:46NAVYZach Abey 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)41–59
- Q4 4:45HAWJohn Ursua 9 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)35–59
- Q4 11:05HAWJoJo Ward 75 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)35–52
- Q4 12:06NAVYTre Walker 19 Yd pass from Malcolm Perry (Bennett Moehring Kick)35–45
- Q4 14:07HAWCedric Byrd 31 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)28–45
- Q3 6:35NAVYZach Abey 7 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)28–38
- Q3 8:08NAVYZach Abey 1 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)21–38
- Q2 0:00HAWRyan Meskell 23 Yd Field Goal 14–38
- Q2 4:02NAVYMalcolm Perry 75 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)14–35
- Q2 4:17HAWJohn Ursua 50 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)7–35
- Q2 6:52NAVYZach Abey 3 Yd Run (Bennett Moehring Kick)7–28
- Q2 11:08HAWMaxwell Hendrie 19 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Ryan Meskell Kick)0–28
- Q2 13:18HAWJoJo Ward 34 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)0–21
- Q1 3:13HAWFred Holly III 1 Yd Run (Ryan Meskell Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:12HAWCedric Byrd 7 Yd pass from Cole McDonald (Ryan Meskell Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HAW Elo 1264, NAVY Elo 1633 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HAW +12.4 (22% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#24 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #21 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →| NAVY | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.9 (#111) | CORE overall | -11.2 (#99) |
| -4 / +13 | offense / defense | +2 / +13 |
| 2.07 | points / drive | 2.44 |
| 3.22 | allowed / drive | 2.89 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -35 | pass over expected | +13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →