New Mexico vs. UTSA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNMTeam statsUTSA
- Q4 7:37UNMJhurell Pressley 77 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)21–9
- Q3 1:57UNMLamar Jordan 9 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)14–9
- Q3 9:20UNMCrusoe Gongbay 1 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)7–9
- Q3 11:23UTSAJarveon Williams 6 Yd Run (Sean Ianno PAT blocked)0–9
- Q2 0:36UTSASean Ianno 20 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UTSA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassLamar Jordan 7/11, 72 YDS
- RushLamar Jordan 9 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDavid Anaya 1 REC, 41 YDS
- PassBlake Bogenschutz 10/16, 169 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJarveon Williams 9 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMarcellus Mack 4 REC, 77 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNM up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 1:57UNM +33%
Lamar Jordan run for 9 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
- Q4 7:37UNM +22%
Jhurell Pressley run for 77 yds for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
- Q4 11:07UNM +19%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Teriyon Gipson for 6 yds to the TexSA 40
- Q3 9:20UNM +17%
Crusoe Gongbay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Rogers KICK)
- Q4 8:57UNM +16%
Jhurell Pressley run for 5 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST down
- Q4 10:32UTSA +13%
Blake Bogenschutz pass complete to Aaron Grubb for 2 yds to the NMex 48
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico vs. UTSA?
New Mexico 21, UTSA 9.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UTSA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNM | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 370 | Total yards | 341 |
| 87 | Passing yards | 229 |
| 283 | Rushing yards | 112 |
| 15 | First downs | 18 |
| 8-15 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 9/14 | Comp/Att | 14/24 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 9.5 |
| 5.9 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-30 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 31:46 | Possession | 28:14 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:36 UTSA field goal on 4th & 1 at UNM 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.78 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:37UNMJhurell Pressley 77 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)21–9
- Q3 1:57UNMLamar Jordan 9 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)14–9
- Q3 9:20UNMCrusoe Gongbay 1 Yd Run (Zack Rogers Kick)7–9
- Q3 11:23UTSAJarveon Williams 6 Yd Run (Sean Ianno PAT blocked)0–9
- Q2 0:36UTSASean Ianno 20 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTSA Elo 1476, UNM Elo 1193 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTSA -13.7 (82% to win) — 3.3 points clear of UNM's market line of -17. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#24 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #9 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →| UNM | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.17 | points / drive | 1.26 |
| 2.95 | allowed / drive | 1.84 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 39% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →