Massachusetts vs. Kent State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MASSTeam statsKENT
- Q4 2:03MASSJackson Porter 34 Yd Interception Return (Logan Laurent PAT failed)40–17
- Q4 2:12MASSLorenzo Woodley 10 Yd Run (Logan Laurent Kick)34–17
- Q3 1:26MASSLogan Laurent 22 Yd Field Goal 27–17
- Q3 7:00KENTJosh Boyle 5 Yd pass from Colin Reardon (Anthony Melchiori Kick)24–17
- Q2 0:03MASSJean Sifrin 4 Yd pass from Blake Frohnapfel (Logan Laurent Kick)24–10
- Q2 5:46MASSLogan Laurent 31 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 9:01MASSJalen Williams 17 Yd pass from Blake Frohnapfel (Logan Laurent Kick)14–10
- Q2 14:42KENTAnthony Meray 43 Yd Run (Anthony Melchiori Kick)7–10
- Q1 3:32MASSMatt Tuleja 5 Yd pass from Blake Frohnapfel (Logan Laurent Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:38KENTAnthony Melchiori 41 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassBlake Frohnapfel 23/38, 286 YDS, 3 TD
- RushLorenzo Woodley 23 CAR, 160 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAlex Kenney 5 REC, 76 YDS
- PassColin Reardon 22/41, 191 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushColin Reardon 3 CAR, 53 YDS
- RecCasey Pierce 6 REC, 57 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMASS up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 9:01MASS +23%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jalen Williams for 17 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)
- Q2 0:03MASS +21%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Jean Sifrin for 4 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)
- Q3 7:00KENT +20%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Josh Boyle for 5 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK)
- Q1 3:32MASS +18%
Blake Frohnapfel pass complete to Matt Tuleja for 5 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)
- Q2 14:42KENT +18%
Anthony Meray run for 43 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK)
- Q3 1:26MASS +16%
Logan Laurent 22 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Massachusetts vs. Kent State?
Massachusetts 40, Kent State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked KENT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MASS | KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| 482 | Total yards | 341 |
| 286 | Passing yards | 191 |
| 196 | Rushing yards | 150 |
| 24 | First downs | 19 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 3-15 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 23/38 | Comp/Att | 22/42 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 4.5 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-105 | Penalties | 6-80 |
| 29:55 | Possession | 30:05 |
Costliest call
Q1 15:00 MASS go for it on 4th & 5 at MASS 34. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:03MASSJackson Porter 34 Yd Interception Return (Logan Laurent PAT failed)40–17
- Q4 2:12MASSLorenzo Woodley 10 Yd Run (Logan Laurent Kick)34–17
- Q3 1:26MASSLogan Laurent 22 Yd Field Goal 27–17
- Q3 7:00KENTJosh Boyle 5 Yd pass from Colin Reardon (Anthony Melchiori Kick)24–17
- Q2 0:03MASSJean Sifrin 4 Yd pass from Blake Frohnapfel (Logan Laurent Kick)24–10
- Q2 5:46MASSLogan Laurent 31 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q2 9:01MASSJalen Williams 17 Yd pass from Blake Frohnapfel (Logan Laurent Kick)14–10
- Q2 14:42KENTAnthony Meray 43 Yd Run (Anthony Melchiori Kick)7–10
- Q1 3:32MASSMatt Tuleja 5 Yd pass from Blake Frohnapfel (Logan Laurent Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:38KENTAnthony Melchiori 41 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KENT Elo 1167, MASS Elo 1035 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KENT -7.7 (71% to win) — 5.2 points clear of KENT's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#50 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #93 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →| MASS | KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.01 | points / drive | 1.24 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 2.29 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 36% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →