Army vs. Kent State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARMYTeam statsKENT
- Q4 3:57KENTColin Reardon 7 Yd Run (Anthony Melchiori PAT blocked)17–39
- Q4 6:11KENTCasey Pierce 5 Yd pass from Colin Reardon (Anthony Melchiori Kick)17–33
- Q4 12:12KENTAnthony Melchiori 32 Yd Field Goal 17–26
- Q3 4:24KENTAnthony Melchiori 27 Yd Field Goal 17–23
- Q3 9:18ARMYTony Giovannelli 8 Yd Run (Daniel Grochowski Kick)17–20
- Q3 12:52KENTChris Humphrey 8 Yd pass from Colin Reardon (Anthony Melchiori Kick)10–20
- Q2 1:31KENTCasey Pierce 10 Yd pass from Colin Reardon (Anthony Melchiori Kick)10–13
- Q2 7:56ARMYRaymond Maples 2 Yd Run (Daniel Grochowski Kick)10–6
- Q2 12:59KENTAnthony Melchiori 29 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 5:25KENTAnthony Melchiori 27 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 11:33ARMYDaniel Grochowski 32 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassA.J. Schurr 2/3, 18 YDS
- RushTony Giovannelli 7 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- RecXavier Moss 1 REC, 11 YDS
- PassColin Reardon 27/40, 360 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushColin Reardon 6 CAR, 42 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJames Brooks 7 REC, 108 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKENT up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:31KENT +23%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 10 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK)
- Q3 9:18ARMY +23%
Tony Giovannelli run for 8 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)
- Q3 12:52KENT +23%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Chris Humphrey for 8 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK)
- Q2 7:56ARMY +20%
Raymond Maples run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)
- Q4 6:11KENT +17%
Colin Reardon pass complete to Casey Pierce for 5 yds for a TD, (Anthony Melchiori KICK)
- Q3 4:24KENT +15%
Anthony Melchiori 27 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Army vs. Kent State?
Army 17, Kent State 39.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARMY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARMY | KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| 330 | Total yards | 467 |
| 35 | Passing yards | 360 |
| 295 | Rushing yards | 107 |
| 19 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 6-12 |
| 0-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 5/15 | Comp/Att | 27/40 |
| 2.3 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-38 | Penalties | 5-53 |
| 26:18 | Possession | 33:42 |
Costliest call
Q3 14:54 ARMY go for it on 4th & 10 at ARMY 21. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:57KENTColin Reardon 7 Yd Run (Anthony Melchiori PAT blocked)17–39
- Q4 6:11KENTCasey Pierce 5 Yd pass from Colin Reardon (Anthony Melchiori Kick)17–33
- Q4 12:12KENTAnthony Melchiori 32 Yd Field Goal 17–26
- Q3 4:24KENTAnthony Melchiori 27 Yd Field Goal 17–23
- Q3 9:18ARMYTony Giovannelli 8 Yd Run (Daniel Grochowski Kick)17–20
- Q3 12:52KENTChris Humphrey 8 Yd pass from Colin Reardon (Anthony Melchiori Kick)10–20
- Q2 1:31KENTCasey Pierce 10 Yd pass from Colin Reardon (Anthony Melchiori Kick)10–13
- Q2 7:56ARMYRaymond Maples 2 Yd Run (Daniel Grochowski Kick)10–6
- Q2 12:59KENTAnthony Melchiori 29 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 5:25KENTAnthony Melchiori 27 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 11:33ARMYDaniel Grochowski 32 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KENT Elo 1090, ARMY Elo 1269 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KENT +4.8 (39% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#33 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #70 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →| ARMY | KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.05 | points / drive | 1.24 |
| 2.92 | allowed / drive | 2.29 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 36% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →