| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 3 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 31 |
| BOIS | 14 | 14 | 21 | 7 | 56 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BOIS Elo 1667, UNLV Elo 1625) plus home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -4.1 (62% to win) — 8.9 points of value on UNLV versus the market line of -13.
BOIS up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UNLV 31, Boise State 56.
Yes — the model's pick (BOIS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BOIS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Anthony Colandrea pass intercepted A'Marion McCoy return for 60 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 32 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
Dylan Riley run for 49 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
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