| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 23 |
| UNLV | 10 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 30 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNLV Elo 1633, UCLA Elo 1404) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNLV -11.6 (80% to win) — 14.1 points of value on UNLV versus the market line of +2.5.
UNLV up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UCLA 23, UNLV 30.
Yes — the model's pick (UNLV) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNLV pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Nico Iamaleava pass intercepted
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 32 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST down
Nico Iamaleava run for 30 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
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