| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAB | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| NAVY | 14 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NAVY Elo 1543, UAB Elo 1319) plus home-field advantage. That projects NAVY -11.4 (80% to win) — 10.1 points of value on UAB versus the market line of -21.5.
NAVY up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UAB 24, Navy 38.
Yes — the model's pick (NAVY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had NAVY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jalen Kitna pass complete to Iverson Hooks for 51 yds for a TD (Jonah Delange KICK)
Blake Horvath pass complete to Luke Hutchison for 63 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)
Blake Horvath pass complete to Cody Howard for 65 yds to the UAB 4 for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →