| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 20 |
| HAW | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (HAW Elo 1257, STAN Elo 1283) plus home-field advantage. That projects HAW -1.4 (54% to win), essentially in line with the market.
HAW up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Stanford 20, Hawai'i 23.
Yes — the model's pick (HAW) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had HAW pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Wilfredo Aybar 0 Yd Fumble Return (Emmet Kenney Kick)
Ben Gulbranson pass intercepted
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Chico Holt for 36 yds to the HAW 41 for a 1ST down
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