Simmons Bank Liberty StadiumConference gameClosing line: USF +-3.5 · MEM covered
Sat, Oct 25, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USF | 14 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 31 |
| MEM | 7 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MEM Elo 1680, USF Elo 1663) plus home-field advantage. That projects MEM -3.1 (59% to win) — 6.6 points of value on MEM versus the market line of +3.5.
USF up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
South Florida 31, Memphis 34.
Yes — the model's pick (MEM) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MEM pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 S.Franklin rush middle for 73 yards gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:02, 1ST DOWN #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #37 C.Leon, LS: #95 G.Cates). #66 T.Morman injured on the play
(05:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 B.Brown pass incomplete short right to #81 C.Neptune thrown to MEM06 broken up by #13 J.Jordan QB hurried by #7 D.Watts, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
(03:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete short right to #13 G.Desrosiers Jr. caught at MEM47, for 12 yards to the USF45, out of bounds at USF45, 1ST DOWN
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →