Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith StadiumConference gameClosing line: WKU -10 · WKU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHSU | 3 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 24 |
| WKU | 7 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 41 |
Team stats
SHSUthis game · better side highlightedWKU
382
Total yards
506209
Passing yards
401173
Rushing yards
10514
First downs
262-14 · 14%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WKU 1409
SHSU 1452
Projected spread
WKU -0.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
WKU
52% to win
Market spread
WKU -10
sportsbook line
Model edge
SHSU
9.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
52%
WKU · market 76%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WKU Elo 1409, SHSU Elo 1452) plus home-field advantage. That projects WKU -0.7 (52% to win) — 9.3 points of value on SHSU versus the market line of -10.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WKU (top)SHSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WKU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- SHSU pass offense (0.01 PPA) vs. WKU pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge WKU.
- WKU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. SHSU pass defense (0.36 allowed) — edge SHSU.
- WKU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. SHSU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge SHSU.
Drive-by-drive
SHSU 3/15 scoring drives← own end zone →WKU 8/15 scoring drives
WKUPUNT4 pl, 14 yds· own 16Q1
SHSUPUNT4 pl, 23 yds· own 20Q1
WKUTD9 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WKU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
WKU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky?
Sam Houston 24, Western Kentucky 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WKU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.