Sat, Nov 22, 7:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOST | 3 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 34 |
| KENN | 14 | 0 | 13 | 14 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (KENN Elo 1375, MOST Elo 1376) plus home-field advantage. That projects KENN -2.4 (57% to win) — 4.1 points of value on MOST versus the market line of -6.5.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Missouri State 34, Kennesaw State 41.
Yes — the model's pick (KENN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had KENN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(05:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Lawrence rush middle for 70 yards gain to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:08, 1ST DOWN #36 Y.Obeid kick attempt good (H: #25 S.McDonald, LS: #47 A.Kallas)
(00:41) Shotgun #2 A.Odom pass complete deep left to #1 G.Benyard caught at MSU00, for 41 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:35, 1ST DOWN #89 D.Kinney kick attempt good (H: #91 J.Huiet, LS: #34 B.Noonan)
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Clark pass intercepted by #4 A.Ford at KSU06 #4 A.Ford return 94 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:00 PENALTY KSU Personal Foul 15 yards from MSU13 to MSU28
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →