Fifth Third StadiumConference gameClosing line: KENN -6.5 · KENN covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOST | 3 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 34 |
| KENN | 14 | 0 | 13 | 14 | 41 |
Team stats
MOSTthis game · better side highlightedKENN
535
Total yards
500344
Passing yards
387191
Rushing yards
11325
First downs
263-10 · 30%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
KENN 1375
MOST 1376
Projected spread
KENN -2.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
KENN
57% to win
Market spread
KENN -6.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
MOST
4.1 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
57%
KENN · market 66%
Our model blends Elo ratings (KENN Elo 1375, MOST Elo 1376) plus home-field advantage. That projects KENN -2.4 (57% to win) — 4.1 points of value on MOST versus the market line of -6.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
KENN (top)MOST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: KENN 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- MOST pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. KENN pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge MOST.
- MOST rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. KENN rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge KENN.
- KENN rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. MOST rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MOST.
Drive-by-drive
MOST 6/12 scoring drives← own end zone →KENN 6/13 scoring drives
MOSTFG7 pl, 50 yds· own 25Q1
KENNTD9 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q1
MOSTPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 26Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
KENN win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri State vs. Kennesaw State?
Missouri State 34, Kennesaw State 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KENN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had KENN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.