| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 7 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 45 |
| MD | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MD Elo 1440, MICH Elo 1799) plus home-field advantage. That projects MD +12 (19% to win) — 2.0 points of value on MD versus the market line of +14.
MICH up 22 entering the 4th quarter. Across 824 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Michigan 45, Maryland 20.
Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MICH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #19 B.Underwood pass complete short right to #1 D.McCulley caught at UMD18, for 22 yards to the UMD00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:28, 1ST DOWN #96 D.Zvada kick attempt good (H: #90 H.Hollenbeck, LS: #45 G.Tarr)
(13:56) Shotgun #7 M.Washington pass complete deep left to #4 S.Knotts caught at MIC25, for 29 yards to the MIC24, out of bounds at MIC24, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MIC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct declined
Andrew Marsh 12 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Dominic Zvada Kick)
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