Joe Aillet StadiumConference gameClosing line: LIB +-1.5 · LT covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 3 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 28 |
| LT | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 6 | 34 |
Team stats
LIBthis game · better side highlightedLT
424
Total yards
437141
Passing yards
118283
Rushing yards
31923
First downs
26Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
LT 1396
LIB 1468
Projected spread
LT +0.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
LIB
51% to win
Market spread
LT +1.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
49%
LT · market 33%
Our model blends Elo ratings (LT Elo 1396, LIB Elo 1468) plus home-field advantage. That projects LT +0.5 (49% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
LT (top)LIB (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: LT 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- LIB rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. LT rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge LIB.
- LIB pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. LT pass defense (0.14 allowed) — edge LIB.
- LT pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. LIB pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge LIB.
Drive-by-drive
LIB 5/12 scoring drives← own end zone →LT 5/13 scoring drives
LTTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
LIBFG12 pl, 60 yds· own 25Q1
LTPUNT5 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
LIB up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
LIB went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Liberty vs. Louisiana Tech?
Liberty 28, Louisiana Tech 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LIB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had LIB pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.