Jones AT&T StadiumClosing line: TTU -48 · push
Sat, Sep 6, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 |
| TTU | 21 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 62 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TTU Elo 1571, KENT Elo 1006) plus home-field advantage. That projects TTU -25 (97% to win) — 23.0 points of value on KENT versus the market line of -48.
TTU up 55 entering the 4th quarter. Across 47 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kent State 14, Texas Tech 62.
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TTU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
CJ Montes pass intercepted Skyler Gill-Howard return for 55 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK) (Upton Bellenfant KICK)
Behren Morton pass complete to Terrance Carter Jr. for 50 yds to the KENT 3 for a 1ST down
Behren Morton pass complete to J'Koby Williams for 30 yds to the KENT 42 for a 1ST down
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