Aviva StadiumNeutral siteConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISU | 7 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 24 |
| KSU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
KSU 1669
ISU 1616
Projected spread
KSU -2.1
neutral site
Model pick
KSU
56% to win
Market spread
KSU -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
56%
KSU · market 59%
Our model blends Elo ratings (KSU Elo 1669, ISU Elo 1616) on a neutral field. That projects KSU -2.1 (56% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
KSU (top)ISU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: KSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- KSU rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. ISU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge KSU.
- ISU pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. KSU pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge ISU.
- ISU rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. KSU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge ISU.
Drive-by-drive
ISU 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →KSU 3/11 scoring drives
ISUFUM6 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q1
ISUFUM4 pl, 1 yds· opp 8Q1
KSUPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 7Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ISU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
ISU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa State vs. Kansas State?
Iowa State 24, Kansas State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked KSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had KSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.