| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRES | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| KU | 14 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (KU Elo 1583, FRES Elo 1490) plus home-field advantage. That projects KU -6.1 (67% to win) — 7.9 points of value on FRES versus the market line of -14.
KU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Fresno State 7, Kansas 31.
Yes — the model's pick (KU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had KU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 39 yds to the KU 32 for a 1ST down
Daniel Hishaw Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 16 Kansas Penalty, Defensive holding (Amir Herring) to the FRES 16
Leshon Williams run for 19 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
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