Navy-Marine Corps Memorial StadiumConference gameClosing line: NAVY -14.5 · FAU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAU | 10 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 32 |
| NAVY | 14 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 42 |
Team stats
FAUthis game · better side highlightedNAVY
450
Total yards
503381
Passing yards
10669
Rushing yards
39723
First downs
265-18 · 28%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NAVY 1533
FAU 1214
Projected spread
NAVY -15.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
NAVY
87% to win
Market spread
NAVY -14.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
87%
NAVY · market 83%
Our model blends Elo ratings (NAVY Elo 1533, FAU Elo 1214) plus home-field advantage. That projects NAVY -15.2 (87% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
NAVY (top)FAU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NAVY 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- NAVY pass offense (0.46 PPA) vs. FAU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge NAVY.
- FAU rush offense (0.04 PPA) vs. NAVY rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge NAVY.
- FAU pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. NAVY pass defense (0.37 allowed) — edge NAVY.
Drive-by-drive
FAU 6/11 scoring drives← own end zone →NAVY 6/11 scoring drives
FAUTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
NAVYTD8 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q1
FAUFUM3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
NAVY up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
85%
NAVY went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Navy?
Florida Atlantic 32, Navy 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (NAVY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had NAVY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.