Baylor
0-1·Big 12· Elo 1569
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT1 | OT2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAY | 0 | 21 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 48 |
| SMU | 10 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (SMU Elo 1717, BAY Elo 1569) plus home-field advantage. That projects SMU -8.3 (73% to win) — 5.8 points of value on SMU versus the market line of -2.5.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Baylor 48, SMU 45.
No — the model picked SMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had SMU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Romello Brinson 75 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Collin Rogers Kick)
Jalen Cooper 75 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Collin Rogers Kick)
End of OT.
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