| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PUR | 14 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (PUR Elo 1207, BALL Elo 1224) plus home-field advantage. That projects PUR -1.7 (55% to win) — 14.8 points of value on BALL versus the market line of -16.5.
PUR up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Ball State 0, Purdue 31.
Yes — the model's pick (PUR) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had PUR pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Kiael Kelly pass complete to Elijah Jackson for 37 yds to the PUR 30 for a 1ST down
Ryan Browne pass complete to Arhmad Branch for 49 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)
Devin Mockobee run for 4 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)
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