| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASU | 3 | 10 | 8 | 21 | 42 |
| COLO | 7 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (COLO Elo 1377, ASU Elo 1614) plus home-field advantage. That projects COLO +7.1 (30% to win), essentially in line with the market.
ASU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Arizona State 42, Colorado 17.
Yes — the model's pick (ASU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ASU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 R.Brown rush middle for 88 yards gain to the COLO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:31, 1ST DOWN #35 J.Gomez kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #39 T.Wigglesworth)
(10:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Sims pass complete short middle to #83 D.Eusebio caught at ASU39, for 68 yards to the COLO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:35, 1ST DOWN #15 K.Anderson pass attempt Successful
(14:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Lewis pass complete short right to #9 S.Brown caught at COLO39, for 33 yards to the ASU26 (#4 M.Rowser), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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