| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 28 |
| CIN | 14 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CIN Elo 1394, PITT Elo 1486) plus home-field advantage. That projects CIN +1.3 (46% to win), essentially in line with the market.
CIN up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,010 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Pittsburgh 28, Cincinnati 27.
Yes — the model's pick (PITT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had PITT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 52 yds for a TD (Carter Brown KICK)
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 56 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 38 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
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