Mackay StadiumClosing line: ORST +-3 · NEV covered
Sat, Oct 12, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORST | 7 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 37 |
| NEV | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NEV Elo 1235, ORST Elo 1609) plus home-field advantage. That projects NEV +12.6 (18% to win) — 9.6 points of value on ORST versus the market line of +3.
ORST up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,454 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oregon State 37, Nevada 42.
No — the model picked ORST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had ORST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Gevani McCoy pass intercepted Kitan Crawford return for 52 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)
Brendon Lewis run for 67 yds for a TD (Matthew Killam KICK)
Gevani McCoy pass intercepted, touchback. Michael Coats Jr. return for no gain
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