Doyt L. Perry StadiumConference gameClosing line: BGSU -3 · NIU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 17 |
| BGSU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Team stats
NIUthis game · better side highlightedBGSU
281
Total yards
205108
Passing yards
98173
Rushing yards
10719
First downs
156-17 · 35%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BGSU 1424
NIU 1452
Projected spread
BGSU -1.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
BGSU
54% to win
Market spread
BGSU -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
54%
BGSU · market 58%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BGSU Elo 1424, NIU Elo 1452) plus home-field advantage. That projects BGSU -1.3 (54% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BGSU (top)NIU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BGSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- BGSU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. NIU pass defense (0.03 allowed) — edge BGSU.
- NIU pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. BGSU pass defense (0.11 allowed) — edge NIU.
- BGSU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. NIU rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge BGSU.
Drive-by-drive
NIU 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →BGSU 1/11 scoring drives
NIUFG10 pl, 46 yds· own 25Q1
BGSUTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
NIUDOWNS7 pl, 36 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
BGSU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,674 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
53%
BGSU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green?
Northern Illinois 17, Bowling Green 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BGSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had BGSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.