| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 19 |
| WYO | 7 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WYO Elo 1245, AF Elo 1459) plus home-field advantage. That projects WYO +6.2 (32% to win) — 2.2 points of value on AF versus the market line of +4.
WYO up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,586 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Air Force 19, Wyoming 31.
No — the model picked AF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had AF pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Aiden Calvert run for 37 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
John Busha sacked by Tyce Westland and Sabastian Harsh for a loss of 12 yards to the AFA 44
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 23 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down
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