Air Force
1-6·Mountain West· Elo 1292
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| ARMY | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARMY Elo 1649, AF Elo 1292) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARMY -16.7 (89% to win), essentially in line with the market.
ARMY up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,137 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Air Force 3, Army 20.
Yes — the model's pick (ARMY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ARMY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Josh Johnson pass intercepted Max DiDomenico return for no gain to the AFA 25
Josh Johnson pass complete to Cade Harris for 27 yds to the ARMY 21 for a 1ST down
Kanye Udoh run for 40 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down
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